Newcastle — 20 August 2026

Class 6 · 1m4f98y · Standard · 14 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Fleur de Mer (4/1)

Won by: Niffler (GER) at 13/8F · then Fleur De Mer (IRE), Billy Bathgate (GB)

What we said: A 14-runner handicap with no standout: Fleur de Mer has the best figure and genuine course-and-distance form (placed regularly at this trip) but it's minor-placing form, not a dominant case, while Niffler is well backed into favouritism despite 115 days off, a poor last run and a huge step up from 7f to nearly 12½f that it has never proven it wants; Jedhi Knight and Carwyn both have progressive or improving lines but on tiny samples that shouldn't be read as more than they are. Too many moderate, unresolved cases at a track where this system has struggled to isolate a single strong angle.

Class 4 · 0m7f14y · Standard · 9 ran

Our bet: Star Of Commala (3/1)

Won by: Star Of Commala (IRE) at 85/40 · then Queen's Hame (GB), Roccapina (GB)

What we said: won last time out at today's exact trip (7f) on today's exact going (standard), a rare like-for-like match in a field where most rivals are stepping into standard ground untested; the 7lb claim from Molly Keegan-Price also sweetens the weight-for-experience trade-off. She's up against a warm favourite with a big form edge but real questions over trip and ground, so the confirmed conditions match here is worth backing.

Class 3 · 0m7f14y · Standard · 8 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Spirited Gesture (1/5)

Won by: Spirited Gesture (GB) at 1/6F · then Angel In My Heart (IRE), Rubyroo (IRE)

What we said: Unbeaten on debut over course and trip in good style, from the powerhouse Gosden stable, and a proven course specialist (T@course 33%) drops into a shallow novice field where nothing else has real form. The step back from good-to-firm to standard is a query but she's the class act here with a Group-standard sire and everything else in the field is a maiden with question marks. At a fair chance of roughly three-quarters this is short but she looks the one to beat on ability alone.

Class 4 · 0m5f0y · Standard · 6 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Influencer Man (9/4)

Won by: This Moment (IRE) at 11/2 · then Star People (FR)

What we said: Three runners crowd into similar chances here: Influencer Man (421, top-rated at 87, but first-time cheekpieces after a win is an odd fit and the price already reflects his form), This Moment (fair-priced, sire line suiting today's ground but a bookie-above-exchange flag attached), and Casino Star (2623, consistent without winning, also gaining cheekpieces) — none of them clears its own fair number by enough to trust with real money, and this track has been a poor hunting ground for these calls lately (3/17). All six runners are stepping onto standard going for the first time, so that's a leveller rather than a differentiator, and the steam on May Bee In Profit and Social Spirit isn't backed by working form.

Class 4 · 0m5f0y · Standard · 13 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Little Mi Mi (9/2)

Won by: Lethal Nymph (GB) at 3/1F · then Changeofmind (IRE), Little Mi Mi (IRE)

What we said: the write-up made a claim the racecard does not support, so this pick was withheld

Class 6 · 0m6f0y · Standard · 14 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Get Up Everybody (5/1)

Won by: Get Up Everybody (IRE) at 9/2 · then Donald (GB), Operation Gimcrack (IRE)

What we said: Fourteen runners with at least six live claims: Get Up Everybody (347533) and Operation Gimcrack (615062) both carry the shortest fair prices in the field, Mount Ruapehu and Asadjumeirah have been steaming in off recent placed/winning form, and White Umbrella won last time out only ten days ago — nothing separates that group cleanly enough to lean on one, and my own Newcastle record (3 from 17) argues for extra caution in exactly this type of race. Softening ground adds another layer of doubt on a card where several are switching from good-to-firm, so there's no single horse whose case clears the bar at its price.