What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 0 · results held for 0
Class 1 · 1m5f · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Del Maro (7/4)
What we said: Del Maro is the clear form and market leader, but his price (7/4) already matches his fair odds, leaving no value edge, while a genuine sire/ground doubt (Camelot on Good To Firm) and 3+ credible rivals (Nil Bua Gan Dua, Alderman, Galiyan) muddy the read
Class 1 · 6f · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Adaay Of Scarlett (7/4)
What we said: 4-runner Group 2 sprint, top two rated within a point of each other and both priced almost exactly to their fair odds, no market overlay to exploit
Class 2 · 6f · Good To Firm
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Sea Cookie (10/1)
What we said: Favoured draw (10) on the stands-side bias, Dark Angel fast-ground sire match, two course/going-proven wins in a row, and a genuine bookie overlay (+2.0 vs exchange) at 16/1
Class 1 · 1m4f · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Rebel's Romance (6/5)
What we said: Rebel's Romance is clear class standard but priced under fair odds (6/5 vs 43% fair) with a 131-day layoff as a genuine risk, leaving no value edge in a small but competitive Group 2
Class 2 · 7f · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Peaceful Charm (4/6)
What we said: draw groups split evenly (4 favoured stands-side vs 4 disadvantaged far-side), no dominant bias, and the standout form horse (Peaceful Charm) is already priced below fair value with no market steamer confirming confidence anywhere
Class 1 · 1m · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Morris Dancer (11/8)
What we said: Morris Dancer is clear best but at 11/8 (fair 40%) offers no price edge, and market is drifting away from the two biggest danger horses (Lyneham, Shayem) suggesting insider caution rather than opportunity
Class 3 · 1m · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Lion Of Alba (4/1)
What we said: 15-runner Class 3 handicap with 5+ horses on legitimate form (Daysofourlives, Spanish Voice, Hickory, Ancient Rome, Parole d'Oro) and no runner showing genuine value vs its fair odds
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
