What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 2
Class 2 · 1m2f · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Evanesco (9/2)
Won by: Heraldry (GB) at 5/1 · then Decade Of Time (GB)
What we said: 6-runner heritage handicap with 4 legitimate contenders (Evanesco, Laureate Crown, Princling, Archers Bay) all within a few pounds on figures, no runner priced away from fair%
Class 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Libertango (8/11)
Won by: Senorita Bonita (IRE) at 9/4 · then Libertango (IRE), Alwaysanangel (IRE)
What we said: top-rated Libertango is well below fair value (8/11 vs 52% fair), and the chasing pack (Senorita Bonita, Ruby Moon, Jolivette) all have live claims with no runner offering a genuine price edge
Class 2 · 1m6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Real Dream (50/1)
Won by: Valedictory (GB) at 7/2 · then Roaring Legend (FR), Goblet Of Fire (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 1 · 1m · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Precise (4/5)
Won by: Blue Bolt (IRE) at 85/40 · then Precise (IRE)
What we said: Group 1 with 4 fillies rated within 7lb of each other on official figures and no runner shows a genuine market/fair-odds overlay
Class 3 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran
Our bet: Acting Lady (2/1)
Won by: Acting Lady (IRE) at 10/3 · then Sierra Belle (GB), Speed of Sound (IRE)
What we said: clear form and market leader (3rd last time out, Dark Angel/Invincible Spirit fast-ground pedigree, top trainer/jockey combo, favorable draw 5) with no standout rival threatening at a fair price
Class 3 · 5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Twilight Calls (17/2)
Won by: Twilight Calls (GB) at 8/1 · then Rapper's Delight (GB), Emperor Spirit (IRE)
What we said: 12-runner sprint handicap with a muddled draw picture: two of the four "favored-draw" runners (Rocking Ends, Our Cody) are drifting hard, undermining the bias read, and the front end (Twilight Calls, Rosario, Rapper's Delight) is tightly clustered on form with no runner showing genuine price value vs fair%
Class 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Aqua Bear (13/2)
Won by: Sierra Sands (IRE) at 8/1 · then Lion of Mali (GB), Flight Control (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
