What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 1
Class 3 · 7f · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Haffner (4/5)
Won by: Haffner (USA) · then Al Wathba (FR)
What we said: small 7-runner maiden with no clear price edge; favorite Haffner is well-drawn-disadvantaged and already fairly priced vs fair odds
Class 2 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: True Test (7/2)
Won by: Planet Seeker (GB) at 12/1 · then Machadadorp (GB), True Test (GB)
What we said: 9-runner handicap rated too tightly (True Test, Havana Pusey, Planet Seeker, Just A Girl all clustered), no runner shows a genuine price edge vs fair% beyond normal vig
Class 2 · 1m · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Wechaad (4/1)
Won by: St Anton (IRE) at 10/1 · then Alfaraz (GB), Wechaad (IRE)
What we said: top-rated on figures with trip/going fully proven, and carries a clear bookie overlay vs exchange (+1.5) flagging genuine market value
Class 2 · 7f · Good To Firm · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Elarak (9/2)
Won by: Aalto (FR) · then Back In Black (IRE), Elarak (GB)
What we said: 15-runner Class 2 heritage handicap, ratings tightly bunched, draw split unclear and top pick Elarak drifting on the market
Class 1 · 7f · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Abraham Lincoln (10/11)
Won by: Al Hudaiba (GB) at 5/2 · then Abraham Lincoln (GB)
What we said: 7-runner Group 2 with 3+ legit contenders (Abraham Lincoln, Al Hudaiba, Alfred Wallace) all priced at or below their de-vigged fair odds, no genuine market overlay on the strongest form horses
Class 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Satono Reve (11/4)
Won by: Comanche Brave (IRE) at 11/1 · then Venetian Sun (IRE), Satono Reve (JPN)
What we said: deep, well-matched Group 1 field (Satono Reve, Almeraq, Venetian Sun, Mission Central, Double Rush all have credible claims) with no runner showing a genuine price overlay vs fair%
Class 3 · 7f · Good To Firm · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Nikovo (11/2)
Won by: Secret History (IRE) at 6/1 · then Crimson Spirit (GB), Nikovo (GB)
What we said: 11-runner competitive handicap with 4+ live contenders (Crimson Spirit, Nikovo, Righthere Rightnow, Leadman) on merit and no single price clearly overlaid vs fair
Class 4 · 1m4f · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Cape Fear (6/4)
Won by: Parisian Scholar (GB) at 11/2 · then First Officer (IRE)
What we said: competitive 6-runner handicap with 3+ closely-matched contenders (Melek Alreeh, Wonder, Bintabuha) and both drifters signalling no market confidence; Cape Fear looks best on form but is priced below fair, no clean value anywhere
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
