What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 3 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Gracious Gift (6/4)
Won by: Graceful Song (USA) at 10/11F · then Somers Isles (IRE)
What we said: Two Appleby stablemates (Graceful Song, Gracious Gift) dominate the market and there's no reliable way to separate them, with the rest of the field far behind
Class 4 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Cerro Blanco (1/12)
Won by: Livemore (GB) at 15/8 · then La Mariposa (GB)
What we said: Cerro Blanco is a heavily odds-on shorty (fair 82%) with every rival drifting hard, offering no price value on the standout, and no overlay exists elsewhere to build a case
Class 4 · 1m4f · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Counter Intuitive (13/8)
Won by: Counter Intuitive (IRE) at 1/1F
What we said: 4-runner field but 3 live contenders (Patrol's rating edge undercut by top weight, cold course trainer, and going concern; Counter Intuitive actually favoured on fair%)
Class 3 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: High Degree (6/4)
Won by: Al Aali (FR) at 3/1 · then High Degree (GB)
What we said: 6-runner handicap where the top-rated horse (High Degree) is already fully priced in (6/4 vs 36% fair, no overlay), and no other runner shows a genuine market mispricing
Class 4 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Rocking Ends (3/1)
Won by: Rocking Ends (GB) at 85/40 · then Diomed Duke (GB)
What we said: competitive 8-runner Class 4 sprint handicap, 4 horses (Rocking Ends, Valley Ofthe Kings, Grandlad, Rogue Bullet) have legitimate claims with no standout price value
Class 3 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Angel Shared (13/2)
Won by: Sing The Blues (IRE) at 25/1 · then Shallow (GB), Powdering (IRE)
What we said: steamer + bookie overlay converge with strong course trainer/jockey stats and fast-ground sire profile suiting today's firm ground
Class 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Sedgemoor (11/1)
Won by: Prefer The Sister (IRE) at 13/8F · then Mister Mojito (IRE)
What we said: Strong market move (37% shorter) combined with a genuine bookie overlay signals smart money, and cheekpieces/damsire fit add a plausible bounce-back case
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
