What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 4 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: China In Your Hand (6/5)
Won by: China In Your Hand (GB) at 11/8F · then Flooding (IRE), Kiah (IRE)
What we said: favourite China In Your Hand is clearly best physically but priced at/below fair (no market inefficiency), and no other runner combines proven form with value
Class 1 · 1m4f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Revoir (5/2)
Won by: Brielle (GB) at 33/1 · then Club Class (GB), Orionis (GB)
What we said: Genuinely competitive Listed race: Revoir tops the figures but her form is all seconds (no win in 5), and her short price already sits inside fair odds, offering no value; Naga/Little Dorrit/Orionis cluster too closely to isolate an edge
Class 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Jumby (4/1)
Won by: Where's Freddy (IRE) at 5/1 · then Jumby (IRE)
What we said: Top speed figure in the field, proven at today's C&D, backed in from 7/1 to 5/1, and a yard in red-hot form (26% last fortnight) all point the same way
Class 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Westmorian (9/2)
Won by: Spring Bloom (GB) at 13/2 · then Yes I'm Mali (GB), Fenlander (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 5 · 1m2f · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Madjid (5/2)
Won by: Madjid (GB) at 6/4F · then Pipily (GB)
What we said: 6-runner field but 3+ live contenders (Ziggy's Avenger, Madjid, John Harrison, Moon Warp) with no runner showing genuine price value vs fair%; Madjid's steam is already reflected in a short, non-overlaid price
Class 4 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Astrazar (10/3)
Won by: Silca Bay (GB) at 3/1F · then Astrazar (IRE)
What we said: tightly-knit 7-runner handicap with 4+ horses on overlapping form/ratings (Mythical Guest, Astrazar, Elan d'Or, Silca Bay) and no runner showing a genuine price overlay vs fair%
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