What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 3
Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: National Honour (5/2)
Won by: Sexy Chick (GB) at 2/1 · then National Honour (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 3 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Aleatrix (8/11)
Won by: Without Prejudice (IRE) at 3/1
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 5 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Spring Bloom (9/4)
Won by: Spring Bloom (GB) at 13/8F · then Robert Anstruther (GB), Rebel Path (FR)
What we said: this is a tightly packed six-furlong handicap with several runners on solid recent form (Spring Bloom's 262321 sequence, Robert Anstruther's recent placing run, Tanmawwy's big speed figure) and no single price standing out as too generous for what's on offer. Too many drifters (Good Earth, Robert Anstruther, Currahee, Chiedozie) are moving the wrong way for me to trust any of them, and the two steamers (Spring Bloom, Rebel Path) are already reflecting their improved market support in the price.
Class 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Dion Baker (18/1)
Won by: Nikovo (GB) at 3/1F · then Cherry Cobbler (GB), Exposure (GB)
What we said: Look at that form line, 113113: four wins and two thirds from his last six starts, a horse who is clearly at the peak of his powers right now, and he drops into this at a workable mark with a light weight of 8-11 plus a 7lb claim taking even more off his back. The course stats for this yard are strong (16% strike, a/e 1.49) and nothing here suggests the hot streak is about to end, so a price near 18/1 undervalues a horse I'd put closer to a 12-15% win chance than the low single-figures the market currently allows him.
Class 5 · 1m4f0y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Society Girl (9/4)
Won by: Society Girl (GB)
What we said: Improving miler-turned-middle-distance filly who's been running into the frame (third last time out) and gets fast ground that plainly suits her Wootton Bassett pedigree, with Ed Walker in red-hot form (25% last fortnight) and a strong course record for the yard; I make her around a 35% chance at 9/4, better than her market-implied price suggests. The 5lb claim also eases her effective weight in a race where the top two carry big lumps.
Class 5 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Drifts Away (5/2)
Won by: Drifts Away (GB) at 7/2 · then Rising Force (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns converged on a different horse than the original pick
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