What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 3
Class 3 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Desert Castle (4/7)
Won by: Desert Castle (GB) at 1/2F · then Sommood (GB), Netherstream (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 3 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Oh Sweet Adare (8/11)
Won by: Zarakova (GB) at 6/4F
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Nabati (1/2)
Won by: Nabati (IRE) at 2/5F · then Tawakal (FR)
What we said: Unbeaten-look profile for Appleby, backing up a narrow debut second with a decisive next-time win, and stepping up again for a yard and rider combination that's flying at the course; in a stripped-back five-runner field the class gap to the rest looks real. Tawakal is the only proven winner among the others but his solitary start came in weaker company, leaving Nabati the standout on what he's shown so far.
Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Spring Bloom (9/2)
Won by: Fifty Nifty (IRE) at 18/1 · then Havana Blue (GB), Spring Bloom (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 5 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Areti (2/1)
Won by: Rogue Citation (IRE) at 15/2 · then Show Me Gold (GB)
What we said: Areti (2/1) and Hilltop (5/2) both have a case — Areti's won two of her last two at this trip and going while stepping up nicely, Hilltop is dropping into calmer company but is asked to shoulder a stiff 142lb top weight — and nothing separates them cleanly enough to back either at these prices, with Rogue Citation and the two steamers (Show Me Gold, Melodical) all capable of nicking a piece of the finish in a small, messy field.
Class 5 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 3 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Lucky Hero (4/6)
Won by: Lucky Hero (IRE) at 5/6F
What we said: Ridden to a facile course-and-distance win last time and both his outings at this trip have resulted in a win, while his last three runs on quick ground read 3-1-1, showing he handles today's fast surface with ease. He also carries a clear rating advantage over this light three-runner field, and with no pace pressure to speak of in such a small field his class edge should tell.
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