Newmarket — 20 August 2026

Class 3 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran

Our bet: Zephyra (5/1)

Won by: Minkaas (IRE) at 1/1F · then Zephyra (GB)

What we said: Ran second on debut over this exact course, distance and going just 14 days ago, and returns quickly without any lay-off concern, while Kingman's fast-ground preference still "handles good" comfortably as today's surface may ease slightly against the two Havana Grey types in the field. That specific conditions match plus a proven state of form makes her the one worth siding with in an otherwise scrappy novice race.

Class 3 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran

Our bet: Missouri Waltz (7/4)

Won by: Tie A Navyribbon (GB) at 100/30 · then Missouri Waltz (IRE)

What we said: Won her sole start easily (1/10) at 7f on good to firm and the step up to a mile on the same fast ground is a natural progression for a Blackbeard filly showing that much class already; Jamie Spencer takes over and the yard is in decent touch (2-6 last 14 days). The form on offer from the rest of this small field is modest by comparison — nothing here has beaten what she beat.

Class 5 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

Our bet: Venetian Lion (15/8)

Won by: Venetian Lion (GB) · then Glen Nevis (GB)

What we said: Comes into this off a clear win last time at 8.5f on good-to-firm, and his course-and-distance figures (79621) show he's already proven at this trip and surface. He's dropping only slightly in the weights while several rivals are stepping up ground or facing tougher conditions, and Haggas has this string firing. At today's price this is close to fair value for the horse with the strongest recent form in the race.

Class 3 · 1m4f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Round The Table (7/4)

Won by: Race To The Stars (IRE) at 15/8F · then First Officer (IRE)

What we said: Round The Table sits at the top of the market on the strength of a smart 511 form figure, but he's stepping up two furlongs beyond his proven trip for the first time and his sire's stock is documented to want cut in the ground on what is officially Good To Firm; Be Patient and Race To The Stars both have live claims of their own (an improving second last time out, and a fancied Appleby stable return from a break) but carry the same going or trip question marks, leaving three horses with genuine but flawed cases and nothing to separate them cleanly at the price.

Class 4 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 10 ran

Our bet: Cherry Cobbler (2/1)

Won by: Mr Writer (IRE) at 11/2 · then Cherry Cobbler (GB), Cancan In The Rain (IRE)

What we said: Won last time out over this exact course, trip and going just five days ago, and the last four runs read 2-2-2-1 with a rock-solid record at Newmarket (2-2-1) and on this ground (0-2-2-1). The extra 7lb at the top of the weights is a fair ask for a horse this consistent in the conditions that clearly suit him, and the rapid reappearance suggests the yard has him firing right now.

Class 5 · 1m4f0y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

Our bet: Society Girl (7/2)

Won by: Traveling Man (GB) at 3/1 · then Sibling Rivelry (GB)

What we said: she won her only start at this course, this trip and this going just 20 days ago, tracks the pace rather than needing to make it, and her sire Wootton Bassett is flagged as best on fast/good ground exactly like today's Good To Firm. Add in a trainer/jockey combo running at 23% and a course strike rate of 19% with a healthy a/e of 1.16, and this is about as tight a conditions match as a small field like this offers.