Newmarket — 21 August 2026

Class 3 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Beguiled (4/7)

Won by: Beguiled (GB) at 1/3F · then Jessica (IRE)

What we said: Beguiled sits a well-backed 4/7 having already been let down as best-in-market off a solid third of 13 last time at this trip and going, but nothing today — no rider change, no class angle, no fresh conditions win — adds to a case the price already reflects, and that's too short a number to add to without a reason beyond what made her favourite in the first place; behind her the market itself is unsettled, with Jessica steaming in from 10/1 to 7/1 off a modest 5th, and Show Me Glory, Woollahra and Zirconic all drifting out, which points to uncertainty rather than a live overlooked runner, and none of their prices offer the case needed at their fair chances. Rain easing the ground adds a layer of doubt too, particularly for the Showcasing-sired runners flagged as needing good-to-firm.

Class 3 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Al Jabbar (4/5)

Won by: Majestic Jude (IRE) at 2/1 · then Al Jabbar (IRE)

What we said: Sea The Stars colt with a clear Charlie Appleby stable pattern at this course (28% strike, a/e 1.01) and a strong T+J combo with Billy Loughnane at 39%, sitting in a small field where the main market rival Majestic Jude is only fair-priced not exceptional off a moderate 5th last time. He's drawn to race on his terms in a straight-course field with no bias to overcome, and the untested/lightly raced form of the others leaves him with the clearest profile for today's step up in grade.

Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Zighy (3/1)

Won by: Angel Shared (GB) at 11/4F · then Shallow (GB), Zighy (IRE)

What we said: Too many overlapping claims to split with conviction: Zighy tops the number after a solid campaign (1-1432) but she's ridden and trained by the exact George Boughey/Billy Loughnane combination this book has previously found running behind its price; Shallow arrives fresh off a well-beaten 19th of 20 last time, a genuine question mark that a visor may or may not answer; and Angel Shared's market support has already compressed the price that made her interesting. With four fillies (Zighy, Shallow, Angel Shared, Powdering) all carrying real but conflicting question marks in a competitive Class 4 handicap, there's no single case strong enough to back with my own money.

Class 5 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

Our bet: Port Darwin (11/4)

Won by: Emma's Letter (GB) at 11/4 · then Liberate (GB)

What we said: Won last time out over this exact course, trip and going just 16 days ago, and the form line 761551 shows he's building into this with genuine improvement, not just one flash result. The Australia sire tag flags a soft-ground preference but his own recent win on today's Good to Firm surface is the more reliable evidence, backed further by the Pivotal damsire's affinity for quick ground.

Class 4 · 1m4f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Rizal (10/11)

Won by: Zurna (GB) at 9/2

What we said: Won last time out at this exact course, trip and going, and carries the field's best form figures (26-311) into a notably small four-runner field with no standout market alternative. The three rivals all carry real question marks — Patrol's poor course record and unsuitable dam-side going preference, Parisian Scholar's well-beaten last effort stepping up in trip, and Zurna's drift and small sample — leaving Rizal the clear form line to take on merit.

Class 5 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran

Our bet: Rogue Citation (9/2)

Won by: Allegrino (IRE) at 2/1F · then Bami (IRE)

What we said: Won last time out over this exact course, distance and going just 14 days ago, and the form line (31-631) shows a filly on the up, not one bouncing off a fluke. The steadying tongue strap and Edward Bethell's yard both look to be doing right by her, and replicating winning conditions so soon after the success is exactly the kind of pattern worth backing.