Nottingham — 17 July 2026

What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.

6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 4

14:22 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

We named the winner

Class 4 · 1m2f50y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Guesstimate (2/1)

Won by: Guesstimate (GB) at 15/8 · then Sweet Horizon (GB)

What we said: clear market leader with strong Haggas form (2-0335), C&D-friendly trainer stats, and damsire Dubawi suits today's fast ground

14:52 EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

We named the winner

Class 4 · 0m6f18y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Tawakal (4/7)

Won by: Tawakal (FR) at 4/9F · then Supreme Star (IRE)

What we said: Tawakal is a well-drawn/well-connected favourite but priced shorter than its own fair odds (implied ~64% vs fair 59%), so no market edge to back it, and the steamer on Halloween Jack muddies which debutant is stronger

15:27 When You Wish Upon A Star Race Handicap Stakes

We named the winner

Class 5 · 2m1f208y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Al Sayah (5/4)

Won by: Al Sayah (GB) at 8/11F · then Simiyann (IRE)

What we said: tight 5-horse handicap, top two on RP figures separated by 1lb and market prices already sit close to fair value, no genuine mispricing

16:02 XMA Wish Race "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses Who Have Not Won More Than One Race)

We named the winner

Class 5 · 0m6f18y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Robert Anstruther (13/8)

Won by: Robert Anstruther (GB) at 13/8F · then Slot (GB)

What we said: open 7-runner handicap with 4+ live contenders (Night Mission, Slot, Robert Anstruther, Black Missile) and no runner priced with a genuine edge vs fair%

16:40 PKF Wish Race Classified Stakes

Placed

Class 6 · 0m5f8y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Jackie Brown (3/1)

Won by: Sir Benedict (IRE) at 100/30 · then Jackie Brown (IRE), Antiphon (IRE)

What we said: Class 6 low-grade sprint with 5+ horses on legitimate recent form and no price clearly mispriced against fair odds

17:10 Arthur Johnson & Sons Wish Race "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses Which Have Not Won A Race In 2026)

Placed

Class 6 · 1m2f50y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Token Love (6/1)

Won by: Finally Escaped (GB) at 11/4 · then Token Love (FR)

What we said: Sharp market steam (42% shorter) plus a genuine bookie overlay align, suggesting real confidence behind a horse with course-fit form.

Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record