What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 6
Class 4 · 0m5f8y · Good To Firm · 2 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Roots In Touche (5/6)
Won by: Roots In Touche (IRE) at 10/11
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 5 · 1m0f75y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Great Blasket (11/8)
Won by: Great Blasket (IRE) at 8/13F · then Theme Park (GB)
What we said: five-runner handicap with four genuine claims (Degale's speed figure, Theme Park's LTO win, Great Blasket's steam/trainer form, Relevant Range's fast-ground sire match) and no single price standing clearly apart from its fair odds
Class 4 · 1m2f50y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Supplicate (6/4)
Won by: Supplicate (GB) at 15/8F · then Crown Office (GB)
What we said: small competitive handicap where the standout form horse (Supplicate) already looks fairly assessed by the market, and every alternative carries a red flag: Sassicaia's yard is 0% from recent runners, Affection is drifting hard with a losing bookie-vs-exchange signal, and Crown Office's recent form line is patchy
Class 5 · 1m0f75y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Our bet: Queen's Hame (9/4)
Won by: Queen's Hame (GB) at 6/4F · then Marquessofanglesey (IRE)
What we said: Just the one start under her belt but she was second on debut and the drop-back to this galloping mile-plus trip for a big yard like Haggas suits a filly who was still finding her feet; the dam-line flag for today's fast ground is a genuine plus, and Fallon's booking on a filly with obvious physical scope for improvement makes her a big player. I make her around a 33% chance at 9/4, which is fair value given how much upside she still has for a stable in good form.
Class 6 · 1m6f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Sixty Plus (4/11)
Won by: Sixty Plus (IRE) at 2/5F
What we said: Sixty Plus is clearly the best horse in this four-runner heap on his last two wins and rating edge, but at 4/11 he's priced right on that strength with no gap between my read and the market's; none of the three rivals (all around 9-10% fair chances) look big enough to make up for the general unreliability of small-field handicaps
Class 6 · 0m6f18y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Molly Mac (15/8)
Won by: Molly Mac (IRE) at 1/1F · then Henriette Ronner (GB)
What we said: small, competitive handicap where the top two on figures (Molly Mac and Henriette Ronner) are already priced close to their true chance, and no runner further down looks clearly overpriced against its form.
Class 5 · 1m2f50y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Palazzo Persico (3/1)
Won by: Poet's Dawn (GB) at 9/2 · then Flightofthephoenix (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out and by a yard the best-suited runner for today's fast surface, being by Profitable out of a sire line built for quick ground, in sharp form (300151) for a Tony Carroll stable currently firing at 15%. Stablemate Galaxy Wonder heads the market but carries a genuine going question (Camelot/Jeremy both fade on firm), which opens a route for this one at a fair price. I make Palazzo Persico around a 28% chance here, above what the market is offering.
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