Perth — 12 July 2026

Class 4 · 2m4f35y · Good · 5 ran

We passed. Likely winner: L'amalric (6/5)

Won by: Holy Joe (IRE) at 6/4 · then Dolly Dior (GB)

What we said: two closely-matched market leaders (Holy Joe 6/4, L'amalric 6/5) with no price offering value over fair%, rest are makeweights

Class 4 · 2m · Good · 6 ran

Our bet: Ras Kassar (11/4)

Won by: Conquer The Breeze (IRE) at 13/8F · then Garde Des Champs (IRE)

What we said: strong market steamer (6.5→3.8) with a bookie overlay and 4 wins in last 5 starts, form clearly superior to this modest field

Class 4 · 2m4f35y · Good · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Atlantic City (2/1)

Won by: Lets Mingle (IRE) at 16/1 · then Atlantic City (GB), Pure Gold (GB)

What we said: Atlantic City looks the best horse (form, yard, course/jockey stats) but at 2/1 she's priced right at her fair% (31%), no overlay; four other runners are drifting badly, which is a negative signal but not enough to build a positive angle around any of them

Class 3 · 2m7f180y · Good · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Grand Clermont (7/2)

Won by: Grand Clermont (FR) at 3/1 · then Walk On Quest (IRE)

What we said: 7-runner Class 3 chase with 4 horses (Statuario, Bleu D'enfer, Parisencore, Grand Clermont) rated within a few lbs of each other and no runner showing genuine price value against fair%

Class 4 · 2m7f207y · Good · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Secret Trix (2/1)

Won by: Dalileo (IRE) at 7/2 · then Secret Trix (GB)

What we said: competitive 7-runner handicap with at least four credible claims (Secret Trix, Ballintubber Boy, Speed Davis, Lowlands) and no runner priced clearly against its fair odds

Class 5 · 2m47y · Good · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Scots Poet (4/1)

Won by: Follow Charlie (IRE) at 14/1 · then Storm The Dug (FR)

What we said: 8-runner handicap with 5-6 runners on credible recent form (Centurion's Sister, Scots Poet, Follow Charlie, Lucky In Taipan, Malangen all have plausible cases) and no single price clearly overlaid enough to isolate