What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 2 · 1m3f218y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hatteen (2/1)
Won by: Infraad (IRE) at 2/1F · then Hatteen (IRE), Cannes (IRE)
What we said: eight-runner staying handicap with five genuine form horses (Tierra Del Toro, Cannes, Infraad, Hatteen, Baltic Fleet) all within a handful of pounds of each other and no price standing out against my own read of its chance
Class 2 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Wild Blossom (11/8)
Won by: Wild Blossom (IRE) at 5/4F · then Fast Track (IRE), Divine Whisper (GB)
What we said: Wild Blossom is clearly the classiest filly here (top-rated, fast-ground pedigree, hot yard) but that's already reflected in a short 11/8 price, and none of Fast Track, Miss Lizzy or Zigazig Ah show a gap between my own read and their fair% big enough to trust; too many overlapping claims for a genuine edge.
Class 1 · 0m7f0y · Good · 14 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Zanthos (11/2)
Won by: Flora Of Bermuda (IRE) at 5/2F · then Sayidah Dariyan (IRE), Radiant Beauty (GB)
What we said: Two wins in her last five (including one three starts back) show the deeper form is smart even though she's dipped since, and the first-time tongue strap directly targets that recent flatness while her damsire's stock is proven on this exact going. Oisin Murphy takes over and the yard's gear change plus sire suitability give a case for outrunning a price that's drifted out to 11/2 in a race with no standout.
Class 1 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 11 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Crownbreaker (7/2)
Won by: Pershaada (IRE) at 11/4F · then Adonius (IRE), Hell Of A Spin (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out and sits in career-best form, with a low draw (2) that plays into today's documented bias on this near-straight course, giving her a cleaner run than several rivals stuck wide. She's rated the form horse of this race behind only the favourite, and the extra half-point on offer versus Pershaada looks generous given how close their underlying figures actually are.
Class 1 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bow Echo (7/5)
Won by: Bow Echo (IRE) at 10/11F · then Gstaad (GB), Opera Ballo (IRE)
What we said: top-class Group 1 with three legitimate contenders (Bow Echo unbeaten in 5, Lake Forest rated equal-top on figures but backing up after just 1 day, Opera Ballo a proven course-and-distance winner fresh off three straight wins) and none of them priced generously enough against their true chance to justify a bet.
Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 26 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Supreme King (13/2)
Won by: French Affair (IRE) at 14/1 · then Under The Twilight (GB), Wreck It Ryley (IRE), Mae Amor (IRE)
What we said: 26-runner Class 4 sprint handicap with a genuinely bunched form book (Charlie Mason, Expert Agent, Arduis Invicta, Mythical Composer all within a few pounds), no pace data supplied, and only a soft draw "lean" rather than a real bias to lean on — this is exactly the large-field lottery type my record shows losing money on
Class 3 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 20 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Pellitory (18/1)
Won by: Crimson Spirit (GB) · then The Liffey (IRE), The Fingal Raven (IRE), Oliver Show (IRE)
What we said: 20-runner Class 3 handicap with a genuine blanket finish across the top four on official figures (Pellitory, Defence Minister, Bobby Bennu, Oliver Show all within a point), and no single price stands out against my own read of that shape
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
