Qatar Goodwood — 30 July 2026

Class 2 · 1m1f197y · Good To Firm · 14 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Evanesco (17/2)

Won by: Ciarrai Abu (IRE) at 100/30F · then Bourbon Blues (GB), Evanesco (GB)

What we said: Second-highest rated in the field and by Too Darn Hot, a sire whose stock is best on this exact fast/good ground, he already landed a win three starts back and the market has been supporting him hard into the day. Two modest efforts since that win are a concern, but the drop back to fitness with 20 days off and course-and-distance experience give him a genuine route back to form on ground that plays to his pedigree strengths.

Class 1 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 10 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Adaay of Scarlett (17/2)

Won by: Man's Best Friend (IRE) at 11/2 · then Adaay Of Scarlett (IRE), Night In Vegas (IRE)

What we said: Three straight seconds after back-to-back wins shows he's fighting at the top of this level and just needs the last yard of luck, and today's fast ground plays right into his Mehmas/Adaay pedigree which both flag for quick surfaces. Fresh for 21 days, drawn in the favoured low stall, and with Oisin Murphy taking over, I make him a genuine 15-18% chance in a race where the 13/8 market elect looks vulnerable on the figures.

Class 1 · 1m3f218y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Geryon (9/2)

Won by: Enceladus (IRE) at 6/4F · then Geryon (IRE)

What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick

Class 1 · 1m1f197y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Diamond Necklace (4/5)

Won by: Diamond Necklace (IRE) at 4/6F · then Friendly Soul (GB)

What we said: five-runner Group 1 with every runner's price sitting almost exactly on its own fair odds, so there's no genuine mispricing to exploit; Diamond Necklace looks the most likely winner but is fairly favourite-priced for an unbeaten filly stepping up, and the principals behind her are priced in line with their form too.

Class 3 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 18 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Shes Got A Brother (17/2)

Won by: Naana's Shadow (IRE) · then U S S Charleston (GB), Miss Yechance (IRE), Manatee Mehmas (IRE)

What we said: 18-runner Class 3 handicap sprint with a genuinely open form book (Shes Got A Brother, Manatee Mehmas, Schrodinger's Cat, Quantum Power, One And Gone all carry live claims), and no single price disagrees enough with its chance to justify a stake

Class 2 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 18 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Shadow King (11/2)

Won by: Sword Salute (USA) at 33/1 · then The Ginger Kid (IRE), The Bookkeeper (IRE), Primal (GB)

What we said: 18-runner nursery with at least four in-form types (Shadow King, Cilician, Mia Fantasia, Everatease) and no pace data to isolate a lone leader, so this is a straight form/weights puzzle rather than a priced mistake

Class 2 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 15 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Elevating (7/1)

Won by: Avalon Queen (GB) at 4/1 · then So Lovely (USA), Beguiled (GB)

What we said: Second on debut for a red-hot Richard Hannon yard, and by Showcasing whose stock are specifically noted to excel on this quick Goodwood turf, exactly the test today. I make her a genuine 15-18% chance in a race where only one rival looks clearly superior, which is well ahead of the 10% the market is pricing into her 7/1.

Class 3 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 19 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Richie's Rocket (20/1)

Won by: Exclusive Code (IRE) at 2/1F · then Zennor Storm (GB), Euston Hall (GB), Richie's Rocket (IRE)

What we said: 19-runner Class 3 handicap with at least five runners (Richie's Rocket, Exclusive Code, Law Court, Zennor Storm, Get Outta Here) carrying genuine, similarly-weighted claims and no price standing out as clearly too big against my own read of its chance