What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 1
Class 2 · 2m4f137y · Good To Firm · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Believitanducan (9/2)
Won by: Defiantly (FR) at 11/4F · then Berkshire Sundance (IRE), Gooloogong (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 1 · 1m · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Shayem (17/2)
Won by: Shayem (IRE) at 17/2 · then Talk Of New York (GB)
What we said: Improving form is the key here, finishing 2nd then winning last time out having found his stride as a three-year-old, and he now steps up into this trip off a rating of 108 that stacks up well against this field. He's out of a King Of Change/Exceed And Excel cross whose dam-line is flagged for today's good-to-firm, and Clifford Lee/K.R. Burke arrive in career-best form (28% strike in the last fortnight); I'd make him a genuine 18-20% chance at 17/2.
Class 2 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 18 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Indalo (7/2)
Won by: Archivist (GB) at 16/1 · then Cerulean Bay (IRE), Classic (GB), Ancient Rome (USA)
What we said: An 18-runner Class 2 handicap with a genuinely messy form picture: Indalo looks the pick of the yard form-wise but is already sent off a well-backed favourite, while Ebt's Guard, Tribal Chief, Scoville and Cerulean Bay all have plausible claims on official ratings and recent placings, so no single price stands out as too big for the risk. The draw is confirmed neutral here, so there's no positional angle to lean on either, and with this many live chances it's a field where the market has already done the work.
Class 1 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Lamborghini Bf (40/1)
Won by: American Affair (GB) at 12/1 · then Rumstar (GB), Time For Sandals (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns converged on a different horse than the original pick
Class 2 · 1m1f11y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
Our bet: Boiling Point (9/2)
Won by: Galen (GB) at 3/1F · then Boiling Point (IRE)
What we said: He carries the highest form-figure rating in this field, arrives from a K. Burke stable firing at nearly 30% over the last fortnight, and his sire Too Darn Hot is proven to relish this quick good-to-firm surface; the market move from 6.5 to 5.5 simply confirms shrewd support for a horse who was still competitive in defeat last time and has a recent win over this trip. I make him around a 25% chance in a race where the joint-favourites are shorter without matching his rating, so the price still has some give in it.
Class 2 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 18 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Innichen (9/2)
Won by: Revels (GB) at 11/1 · then Dubai Champion (IRE), Innichen (ITY), Sovereign Glory (GB)
What we said: This is an 18-runner two-year-old nursery where several colts (Innichen, Dubai Champion, Sky Secret, The Dancing Pirate) all have plausible claims from low draws, fast-ground pedigrees or solid recent form, and no single one stands out enough to trust in a field this size and this competitive. With that many live contenders and a market that's already reacted (Persian Spring and The Dancing Pirate both shortening sharply overnight), it's a race best watched rather than bet.
Class 3 · 1m3f44y · Good To Firm · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Pierian (13/2)
Won by: Into The Light (GB) at 2/1F · then Devil's Peak (GB), Waterford Castle (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 2 · 1m1f197y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Zgharta (5/1)
Won by: Silver Lake (GB) at 4/5F · then Lady Dora Mae (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
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