Qatar Goodwood — 1 August 2026

Class 2 · 1m6f0y · Good To Firm · 14 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Burdett Road (35/1)

Won by: Hopewell Rock (IRE) at 5/1 · then Small Fry (IRE), Aeronautic (IRE)

What we said: Carries the highest speed figures in the race (PR111/SR105), well clear of this field on ability, and comes from a yard flying at 36% over the last fortnight with a 5lb claimer taking off further weight. The Muhaarar sire profile favours this quick surface and his course form (15% strike) backs up that today's ground won't be an issue, so at this big price I make him roughly an 8% chance rather than the ~2-3% the market is offering.

Class 1 · 1m3f218y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Al Aasy (5/2)

Won by: Enfjaar (IRE) at 8/1 · then Opportunity (GB), Al Aasy (IRE)

What we said: This boils down to a near coin-flip between the two Haggas stablemates, Al Aasy and Opportunity, both fancied for good reason (Al Aasy a course specialist in career-best current form, Opportunity fast-improving with the ground suiting his pedigree), and neither price looks wrong once you allow for that. In My Teens looks fairly assessed too but carries a sire/damsire going concern on this quicker surface, so there's no third angle to lean on either.

Class 1 · 1m6f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

Our bet: Danielle (10/3)

Won by: Goodie Two Shoes (IRE) at 8/1 · then Santorini Star (IRE)

What we said: Top-rated horse in the race on official marks (114) and RPR (118), she arrives unbeaten last time out and her scoreline of 2-4-5-1 shows a mare improving into this trip with Buick and the Gosden stable both in form; stamina over this extended trip and taking to good ground with no sire-going conflict makes her the one with most upside. I make her around a 28% chance at 10/3, clearly above what the market currently allows.

Class 2 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 27 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Far Above Dream (13/2)

Won by: Evening Saigon (IRE) at 16/1 · then Stratusnine (IRE), Mitbaahy (IRE), Completely Random (GB)

What we said: Twenty-seven runners in the Stewards' Cup is exactly the chaos this system loses money in, and even the low-draw lean here is a soft one that "shifts with the ground" rather than a hard rule; Far Above Dream, Fandom, Annaf, Invictus Gold and King Of Light all tick the favoured-draw and fast-ground boxes but none stands out enough to isolate from the pack, while proven course-form types like Realign and Dark Thirty are drawn wide and unbettable on that alone. Sondad and Two Tribes carry recent form into a race with too many overlapping stories at the top of the market for any single number to hold up.

Class 2 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 13 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Ironwill (7/1)

Won by: Ghost Mode (IRE) at 9/2 · then Ironwill (IRE), We're Goosers (IRE)

What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick

Class 2 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 13 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Speakers Corner (3/1)

Won by: Rafe's da Man (GB) at 12/1 · then Charted Course (GB), Speyside (GB)

What we said: Speakers Corner sets a solid standard with the O'Brien/Ryan Moore combination and a sire line that clearly wants this fast ground, but at 3/1 he's priced almost exactly where his form warrants and offers no scope for profit; behind him Leadlight, Market Leader and Charted Course all arrive with genuine placed form in similarly competitive maidens, leaving no gap in the form book worth exploiting at the prices on offer. Thirteen runners with five or six live chances is exactly the shape of maiden that chews up conviction — nobody stands clear enough to risk money on.

Class 3 · 1m1f11y · Good To Firm · 17 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Crest Of Fire (10/3)

Won by: Crest of Fire (IRE) · then Boyfriend (GB), Blue Courvoisier (GB)

What we said: Seventeen runners in a competitive Class 3 handicap with at least five renewed form lines (Crest Of Fire, Blue Courvoisier, Boyfriend, Point Of Contact, El Matador) all boasting solid recent placed form and no single angle cutting through the pack; Crest Of Fire heads the market on the back of a progressive campaign but at 10/3 in a field this size there's no cushion for the trip stiffening late or for one of the others (Blue Courvoisier's fast-ground pedigree, Boyfriend's course record) taking it instead. Firm ground and a stiff mile-and-a-furlong finish at Goodwood can throw up upsets from mid-pack in fields like this, and nothing here separates cleanly enough to trust with real money.