What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 1
Class 4 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hey Up Ronnie (10/11)
Won by: Mojito Madness (IRE) at 6/4 · then Gerry's Darling (GB), Hey Up Ronnie (GB)
What we said: 14-runner 2yo maiden with a short odds-on-ish favourite (Hey Up Ronnie, 10/11) offering no price value and only a single prior run; rest of field is form-light and unreadable
Class 5 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Indefensible (6/5)
Won by: Indefensible (IRE) at 11/10F · then Derrygarran Lad (FR)
What we said: 6-runner race dominated by two near-fair-priced favourites (Derrygarran Lad off 154d layoff, Indefensible on a 1-day turnaround), no mispriced runner stands out
Class 6 · 1m7f217y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Stitching Wheel (11/10)
Won by: Billy Bathgate (GB) at 1/1F
What we said: 4-runner handicap where market favourite (Stitching Wheel, fair 46%) and RP's pick (Billy Bathgate, fair 32%) diverge with no price offering genuine value against its fair odds
Class 5 · 0m7f219y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Amidst The Chaos (7/4)
Won by: Rajapour (IRE) at 9/2 · then Yafaarr (IRE)
What we said: 7-runner Class 5 handicap with 4+ credible form lines (Nyman top-rated, Amidst The Chaos in-form fav, Criminal Shore RP pick, Rajapour progressive) and no runner's price beats its fair% by a meaningful margin
Class 4 · 1m2f1y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Be Patient (1/2)
Won by: Financer (GB) at 15/8
What we said: 4-runner field with no clear price value: Be Patient is fairly priced favourite, Nepal's fitness after 150 days is too big a risk to back at 10/1, no overlay strong enough to act on
Class 6 · 1m2f1y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Baldosa (6/4)
Won by: Sahm Naif (IRE) at 11/4 · then Harswell River (IRE), Baldosa (IRE)
What we said: 8-runner competitive handicap, 4+ live contenders (Sahm Naif, Baldosa, Talking In Kode, Harswell River) with no runner clearly overlaid vs fair%
Class 6 · 1m1f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Finally Escaped (15/8)
Won by: Pisanello (IRE) at 10/1 · then Finally Escaped (GB), Volenti (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
