16:50 Irish EBF Median Sires Series Race
Placed0m7f94y · Good · 9 ran
Our bet: Joga Bonito (10/3)
Won by: South Dakota (IRE) at 3/1 · then Joga Bonito (GB), Wunderschon (GER)
What we said: Trajectory is the story here: form reads 4-2-3-1, culminating in a clear win last time from a 15-runner field, and today's step back to good ground after yielding-to-soft plays to that improvement. Cheekpieces added for the first time and a repeat trip suggest the yard is sharpening a horse still on the way up, not one levelling off like the market leaders. At 10/3 I make him a stronger chance than his fair price reflects given the shape of his form.
17:25 Elphin Handicap
Placed0m7f94y · Good · 18 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Givehertilxmas (9/2)
Won by: Phoenix Pairc (IRE) at 7/1 · then Givehertilxmas (IRE), Whatswrongnow (IRE)
What we said: Eighteen runners of moderate ability with no standout: Givehertilxmas is the classiest on ratings but returns from a 62-day break with first-time cheekpieces and sits in a band that's a mild negative not a positive, while Phoenix Pairc carries top weight off a stalling 0-0707 sequence and Cisterna, Shamanka and La Campanella all arrive with similarly thin claims — nothing here clears the bar in a field this size.
17:55 Lidan Handicap
We named the winner0m7f94y · Good · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Goal Exceeded (6/1)
Won by: Goal Exceeded (GB) at 7/2F · then Morehampton (IRE), Mercurial (IRE)
What we said: Thirteen runners and five of them (Merisi Diamond, Ninth Crusade, Goal Exceeded, Earls, Punica Granatum) sit within a couple of points of each other on form and rating, with nothing at the price that clearly separates itself; Goal Exceeded's 203144 sequence is the most consistent profile but it's not enough on its own in a field this bunched, and Merisi Diamond's return from a 134-day break after a decent win adds real uncertainty rather than removing it. A messy, blanket-finish type of handicap where backing any of the top five is a guess dressed up as a read.
18:25 Lecarrow Race
We named the winner1m2f63y · Good · 5 ran
Our bet: Hazdann (7/4)
Won by: Hazdann (IRE) at 1/1F · then God Of Power (IRE)
What we said: Clear class edge on ratings (OR103 versus a highest rival in the high-80s/low-90s) and a proven Weld yard make him the one to beat back up in trip after finishing close-up 4th over a shorter course-and-going test last time; the 85-day gap is a mild caution but not enough to override the rating gap.
18:55 Racing Here Again On September 28th Maiden
Did not win1m4f17y · Good · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Almazann (13/8)
Won by: Miss Romagna (IRE) at 7/1 · then Purple Bandit (IRE), I Hope You Dance (FR)
What we said: Almazann's 222 form figures, course experience (placed there once) and repeat of last time's trip/ground make him the clear class horse in this 19-runner maiden, but that case is already the market's case at 13/8 and nothing today amplifies it beyond what the price reflects; with three-time-placed maiden still needing to prove he can win, and a wide 19-runner field behind him, there's no case that clears the bar at this price.
19:25 Oran Handicap
Did not win1m4f17y · Good · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Faro Island (6/1)
Won by: Letiza (IRE) at 7/1 · then Stellar Moment (IRE), Ryefield Dasher (IRE)
What we said: A 19-runner handicap at Roscommon where the case fans out across half the field: Thyer arrives fresh off a solid second, Fratas carries festival-course pace, Stellar Moment and Youcansaythatagain both won last time as improving three-year-olds, and Faro Island has strung together 41761 with a clear last-time win — no single one of them separates cleanly from the pack at the price on offer. With that many overlapping form lines in a race this big, there's no single string worth pulling with your own money.
19:55 Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap
Did not win1m4f17y · Good · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Augusta Rock (4/1)
Won by: Priorstown (IRE) at 9/2 · then Glen Echo (IRE), Flagstone Lady (IRE), Tintinabulla (IRE)
What we said: a 19-runner handicap with at least four live claims (Priorstown the market leader on a poor last run stepping up in trip, Augusta Rock improving with new headgear, Canon Law fresh off a win but dropping trip, Minella Buoy dropping a huge 5f) is exactly the lottery-type field this system loses in, and nothing separates them cleanly enough at the prices to back one with conviction
