What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 1
Class 4 · 1m · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Best Rate (5/2)
Won by: Best Rate (GB) · then Paladin (IRE), Mythical Guest (IRE)
What we said: 8-runner handicap with 4+ legitimate contenders (Best Rate, Helm Rock, Clouds Hill, Mythical Guest) and no single price clearly overlaid against fair odds
Class 3 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Washington Royale (7/1)
Won by: Flann Sunna (IRE) · then Mysterious Times (GB)
What we said: Favored high draw (6) in a race where draw bias severely penalises low stalls, backed by a market steamer and bookie overlay, with a leading speed figure (80).
Class 3 · 7f213y · Good To Firm · 11 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Mr Seagull (25/1)
Won by: Ciarrai Abu (IRE) at 3/1 · then Crest of Fire (IRE), Abundant (IRE)
What we said: third-best figure in the field, rock-solid frame form (00-446) and a genuine bookie overlay (+5.0 vs exchange) at a big price, backed by the best T+J combo strike rate here
Class 4 · 1m1f212y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Gatehouse (5/2)
Won by: Golden Knight (IRE) at 13/8
What we said: 5-runner handicap with 3+ credible in-form contenders (Golden Knight, Gatehouse, Morbeh) and no runner priced clearly above fair value; Golden Knight's steamer conflicts with a real sire-ground negative (Camelot struggles on firm)
Class 3 · 1m3f211y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Dojin (10/1)
Won by: Hoseki (IRE) · then Nochebuena (GB)
What we said: steamer (27% shorter) plus a genuine bookie overlay vs exchange, backed by a strong sire/damsire fit for fast ground and three wins from her last five
Class 3 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Coul Angel (7/1)
Won by: Amazing Journey at 5/1 · then Fast Track Harry, Bolo Neighs
What we said: 13-runner Ascot sprint handicap with a strong draw bias, but the signals contradict each other (favoured-draw runners like Coul Angel/Amazing Journey are priced at or above fair, while disadvantaged-draw runners like So Darn Hot are steaming) — no single angle isolates a winner
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
