What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 5 · 1m · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Decalogue (3/1)
Won by: Thiscouldbefun (IRE) at 9/2 · then Sydney Rock (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 3 · 6f213y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Tiora Time (5/4)
Won by: Flooding (IRE) at 1/1F · then Tiora Time (GB)
What we said: Won last time out by a clear margin over course, trip and going, and today repeats that exact test (6.5f, good to firm) which the damsire line (Showcasing) is flagged to relish. Top-rated form figure of the confirmed runners, drawn 1, and no fitness or ground question marks anywhere in the profile.
Class 4 · 6f213y · Good To Firm · 2 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Serenetta (2/9)
Won by: Reformation (GB) at 9/4
What we said: Serenetta’s only form line is a 7f win at Newbury 253 days ago on slower ground, she’s never raced on quick turf despite a fast-ground sire, and dropping into a two-horse novice off a long freshen-up asks a lot even against an unraced rival; at odds-on there’s no cushion for those question marks, and this yard has returned just 3 winners from 21 bets at this course. Reformation is a complete form blank for Balding/Murphy, so this reduces to trusting a filly fitness-unknown at a price that leaves no room for anything going wrong.
Class 2 · 1m · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Siena Storm (4/6)
Won by: Siena Storm (GER) at 2/5F
What we said: the model form-line in this five-runner novice, having run on into 4th over this course and distance last time out and now stepping up to a mile that should suit; Ed Walker's yard is in strong touch and the jockey/trainer combination has been productive together this season. She's clearly the one to beat on what she's shown, and the rest of this field have either drifted, missed the mark last time, or arrive without any recorded form to lean on.
Class 3 · 1m4f5y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Counter Intuitive (5/2)
Won by: Ruby Wedding (GB) at 9/2 · then Gloryous (IRE)
What we said: Too many fillies arrive with a genuine case at close to fair odds: Counter Intuitive has won her last two starts with the trip, the good-to-firm ground and both sire lines all playing to her strengths, Ruby Wedding has been building form nicely with a clear second last time and two solid efforts on this exact going, and Green Sky arrives on a three-race winning streak with course form in the book even after the drop in trip. With three fillies this closely matched on merit and price, and this course a proven weak spot in the record, there's no single one I can honestly separate enough to back.
Class 4 · 1m1f201y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Supplicate (11/4)
Won by: Supplicate (GB) at 11/8
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
