Sandown — 23 July 2026

Class 4 · 0m5f10y · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Havana Smile (6/1)

Won by: Arry Up (GB) at 9/4F · then Nogo's Dream (GB)

What we said: draw bias favours high stalls but the strongest recent-form horses (Arry Up, Neptune Legend) sit in the worst draws, creating a genuine conflict with no single angle clearly winning out

Class 3 · 0m7f0y · 9 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: United Authority (13/8)

Won by: Zero Error (IRE) at 6/1 · then Thunder Home (IRE), Somerton (IRE)

What we said: top-rated trainer (26%) and Doyle combine with a Dubawi colt whose sire profile matches this firm going, and it's clearly the best form on offer in a maiden field

Class 1 · 0m7f0y · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Aperoll (7/4)

Won by: Aperoll (GB) at 13/8F · then Bayside View (IRE), Tall Trees (GB)

What we said: Listed race with 4+ credible fillies (Aperoll, Bayside View, Tall Trees, War Banner) all priced close to fair, no clear mispricing to exploit

Class 4 · 1m1f209y · 6 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Kamaway (11/4)

Won by: Tawajjah (IRE) at 2/1F · then Assail (IRE)

What we said: 6-runner handicap with 3 legitimate in-form contenders (Kamaway, Tawajjah, Morcar) all priced close to their fair odds, no clear mispricing to exploit

Class 3 · 1m6f0y · 3 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Probation (7/4)

Won by: Probation (GB) at 3/1

What we said: 3-runner handicap with all prices sitting almost exactly at their de-vigged fair odds, no genuine value gap on any of them

Class 5 · 1m1f209y · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Aravalli (10/3)

Won by: We Ride At Dawn (GB) at 13/2 · then Shirakawa (GB)

What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick

Class 5 · 1m0f0y · 12 ran

Our bet: Sail On Sailor (3/1)

Won by: Marsh Benham (IRE) at 20/1 · then Amused (IRE), Billy Mill (GB)

What we said: Three-race winning streak with rising class and in-form yard/jockey combo make the 3/1 look tighter than fair but still underpriced against his true in-form chance