13:40 Tattersalls £40,000 Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)
We named the winnerClass 2 · 0m7f0y · Good · 9 ran
Our bet: Tall Trees (9/4)
Won by: Tall Trees (GB) · then Victoria Night (IRE), Flower Show (IRE)
What we said: Improving form figures (5-8-2-3) with the last two runs a close-up 2nd and 3rd, and she already boasts solid course and course/distance form (course 3, dist 523) which the debutants in this field lack. Jamie Spencer takes over and the drop back into a smaller maiden after facing tougher company suggests she's fairly treated.
14:15 Zyn Frontrunner Finish Handicap Stakes
We named the winnerClass 2 · 1m1f209y · Good · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Kokbastau (7/2)
Won by: Kokbastau (GB) at 9/2 · then Alcarath (IRE), Stem (IRE)
What we said: Thirteen runners in a competitive Class 2 handicap with too many live cases: Kokbastau arrives on the back of a facile win but has never raced on good ground in four starts, Alcarath returns from 78 days off but has solid course-and-trainer form, and Crown Of Oaks, My Love Is King and Stem all carry credible recent form too — nothing separates them cleanly enough at the prices on offer.
14:50 Betmgm Atalanta Stakes (Group 3)
Did not winClass 1 · 1m0f0y · Good · 10 ran
Our bet: Calendar Girl (10/3)
Won by: Love Dynasty (FR) at 33/1 · then Noche Clasica (IRE), Moon Target (GB)
What we said: Unbeaten-look form figures (1211-1) with the most recent win coming at this exact course and distance just 21 days ago, and a PR of 112 that tops this field on ability. Owen Burrows has her progressing nicely at three, dropping into calmer waters than her festival form suggests, and the manageable weight-for-age scale suits a filly clearly still improving
15:30 Betmgm Solario Stakes (Group 3)
Did not winClass 1 · 0m7f0y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Rock Montreal (9/4)
Won by: Alfred Wallace (GB) at 11/4 · then Dover Street (IRE), Breacher (GB)
What we said: a genuinely messy Group 3 with five plausible types: Rock Montreal is unbeaten and fancied by a red-hot Varian/Buick combination but that's from a single run and the lowest recorded figure in the race, Alfred Wallace owns the best figure-work (PR110, SR92) yet was only fourth of ten last time, and Mia Fantasia, Sonic Angel and Sergei Diaghilev all arrive with credible unbeaten-or-near-unbeaten form of their own — nothing separates them cleanly enough at the prices, and this venue has been a weak one on the record (4/15).
16:05 Handicap Stakes
PlacedClass 3 · 7f · 10 ran
Our bet: Desert Shadow (15/8)
Won by: Storm Free (GB) at 12/1 · then Desert Shadow (GB), Defence Minister (GB)
What we said: Won last time out over this exact course and distance just 23 days ago, and the form line -05211 shows a horse peaking with back-to-back wins into today's return; Oisin Murphy continues aboard for Saeed bin Suroor with the visor that clearly worked last time kept on. Course-and-distance form plus the visible upward trajectory makes this the strongest form case in the race.
16:35 Betmgm Real Deal Nursery Handicap Stakes
We named the winnerClass 4 · 0m7f0y · Good · 8 ran
Our bet: Victory Gold (3/1)
Won by: Victory Gold (IRE) at 7/4F · then Noble Prince (GB)
What we said: Top-rated form horse in this nursery (PR106) with a clear upward trend, finishing 1st and 2nd in his last two starts and only beaten into 2nd in a small field of four last time; Oisin Murphy taking the ride for bin Suroor adds further confidence, and the market has shortened him into 3/1 from a longer overnight price. He looks the strongest form profile in a field where none of his rivals match his rating.
17:10 Gamble Responsibly At Betmgm Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 4 · 0m5f10y · Good · 10 ran
Our bet: Hypnotised (5/2)
Won by: Rosario (IRE) at 6/5F · then Lipsink (IRE), Havana Smile (GB)
What we said: Ran a clean, progressive race last time in the very same conditions here (2nd in a 12-runner field over course and distance on good-to-firm), and that C&D form line is the strongest in the race. The overall form figures (41-722) show a horse in good order with the scope to go one better up in class-appropriate company today.
