16:40 Westcare Home Care Claiming Hurdle
Did not win2m1f193y · Good · 10 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Raydamann (5/2)
Won by: Oh So Charming (GB) at 7/2 · then God Of Thunder (IRE), Rich Belief (GB)
What we said: Won last time out and boasts by far the best form and rating in this field (PR117, OR115), stepping into a weak claiming hurdle where nothing else has shown that level of ability recently. Gordon Elliott and a 5lb claimer add polish, and even with the sire's soft-ground preference working against him on this firm surface, the class gap should be enough to see him through.
17:15 Martin Reilly Hyundai Mares Maiden Hurdle
Placed2m1f193y · Good · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Circus Hill (1/4)
Won by: Speisialta (IRE) at 14/1 · then Circus Hill (IRE), Maroel (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
17:45 Kilcawley Construction Rated Novice Hurdle
Placed2m1f193y · Good · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Manoir De Mirande (2/1)
Won by: Luker's Tipple (IRE) at 6/4F · then Manoir De Mirande (FR)
What we said: Won his last two starts and looks to be improving fast for a powerful yard, with Josh Williamson's 5lb claim taking him down to a workable weight for this grade. The form line 3711 shows a horse building real confidence over hurdles, and this trip suits a big, galloping type bred for stamina.
18:20 SIS Handicap Hurdle
We named the winner2m1f193y · Good · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Justicialism (7/1)
Won by: Justicialism (IRE) at 13/2 · then Phoenix Arizona (IRE), Georginas Jet (IRE), Steps In The Sand (IRE)
What we said: Nineteen runners in a lowly-contested handicap hurdle is exactly the kind of lottery this system has burned money in before, and nothing here rises above the crowd: Go To Town carries top weight off a stuttering 40-044 line, Justicialism looks the most solid recent form (2-2235) but is buried in a 19-strong field with a booked apprentice, and the gear changes on Justicialism, Phoenix Arizona and Mon Sheriffe are as likely to signal a yard papering over cracks as unlocking new form. Moulane West's steam from 23s to 13s is eye-catching but he's a 10-year-old off 58 days, matched to a 7lb claimer, and that kind of drop screams speculative market money rather than a stone-cold fact.
18:55 Mulhern Leonard Chartered Accountants Maiden Hurdle
Did not win2m4f168y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Minella Moon Shine (6/4)
Won by: Ivana D'alco (FR) at 3/1 · then Mr Caulfield (IRE)
What we said: Both market leaders carry a question mark that keeps this one off the list: Cut The Rope is out of a Sea The Stars mare-line that wants softer ground and today's drying, firming surface works against him, while Minella Moon Shine backs up on just two days' rest with a scrappy F/26 formline that gives little to hang a case on. Throw in Ivana D'alco fitted with first-time headgear for a red-hot Mullins yard and a solid course record, and you've got three horses with a claim and nothing that clearly separates them at the top of the market.
19:30 Lighthouse At Clifford Electrical Handicap Hurdle
Did not win2m4f168y · Good · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Jupiter Du Gite (3/1)
Won by: In The Minus (IRE) at 40/1 · then Bruant (GB), You Make Me Smile (IRE)
What we said: Rated well clear of this field on official figures (125 to next-best 123) and ran a solid placed effort last time out fresh off a break, with a useful 5lb claim easing the headline topweight burden. The improving profile and the fact he's the only horse here without a market-signal red flag make him the standout on ability in a moderate field.
20:05 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race
Placed2m2f134y · Good · 12 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Peat Sounds (8/11)
Won by: Missouri Snow (IRE) at 9/1 · then Ballito Beauty (IRE), Peat Sounds (IRE)
What we said: Willie Mullins sends this daughter of Hillstar off as a well-backed favourite in a mares' Pro/Am contest packed with unexposed types, and his in-form yard boasts a strong course strike-rate with this rider combination that regularly dominates these bumper-style mares races. The calibre gap to this field looks obvious on pedigree and stable class alone, and there's no standout form horse elsewhere to challenge that.