Southwell — 23 July 2026

Class 5 · 0m7f15y · Standard · 13 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Timely Affair (5/1)

Won by: Timely Affair (GB) at 9/2 · then Dannick (GB), Anthropologist (GB)

What we said: 14-runner apprentice handicap, wide-open field with no standout draw/pace angle worth backing

Class 4 · 7f15y · Standard · 12 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Foxy Night (5/2)

Won by: Hulk Power (IRE) at 11/4 · then Foxy Night (IRE), Burning Impact (GB)

What we said: 13-runner maiden with three legitimate market leaders (Hulk Power, Foxy Night, Burning Impact) and no price standing out as value against fair%

Class 4 · 0m7f15y · Standard · 13 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Dovecote (10/11)

Won by: Gran Ventura (AUS) at 5/2 · then Dovecote (GB), Conspiracist (FR)

What we said: clear market leader Dovecote (10/11, fair 41%) is odds-on with no value case against, and Conspiracist looks the only credible rival at fair value already priced in

Class 5 · 6f17y · Standard · 12 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Beresford Gap (11/10)

Won by: Rlasthope (GB) at 15/8 · then Beresford Gap (IRE), Dreamlighter (IRE)

What we said: 14-runner 2yo novice with two clear market leaders (Beresford Gap 40% fair, Rlasthope 26% fair) already well-priced, no overlay on either

Class 5 · 0m6f17y · Standard · 12 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Enamored (13/8)

Won by: Too Many Spirits (GB) at 4/1 · then Time And Effort (GB), Bella Lucia (GB)

What we said: 13-runner 2yo novice, favourite already short with no price edge over fair, no reliable draw/pace read

Class 6 · 1m4f15y · Standard · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Urban Warrior (9/4)

Won by: Belle Of Kt (GB) at 15/2 · then Koko Blue (GB), Urban Warrior (GB)

What we said: Class 6 handicap with at least three legitimate form cases (Urban Warrior, Koko Blue, Saachi), and the favourite's price already reflects its improving-form edge with no real overlay

Class 6 · 1m3f24y · Standard · 10 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Hansteen (5/6)

Won by: Si White (GER) at 9/2 · then Hansteen (GB), Smoker Bellamy (IRE)

What we said: no runner offers real value against the market's own fair%, and Hansteen (clear market leader) is too short to back at 5/6 with only a 45% fair edge that matches its raw form

Class 6 · 0m4f215y · Standard · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Sparkling Wine (5/2)

Won by: Havin A Flyer (GB) at 5/1 · then My Mate Mackley (GB)

What we said: 7-runner handicap with 3+ horses (Sparkling Wine, My Mate Mackley, Havin A Flyer) showing similar credible recent form, no single price stands out as value vs fair%