What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 3
Class 5 · 1m6f21y · Standard · 10 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Desert Belle (3/1)
Won by: Flash Kozo (IRE) at 9/4 · then Desert Belle (GB), Glenna (IRE)
What we said: most consistent recent form (21432) of the leading trio, quick 13-day turnaround, and a red-hot Prescott yard (36% last 14 days) at the same fair% as market-preferred Glenna
Class 3 · 1m4f14y · Standard · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Turret (11/1)
Won by: Kokbastau (GB) at 11/4 · then Turret (IRE), Humphrey (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 5 · 1m3f23y · Standard · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Roc De Fer (2/1)
Won by: Roc De Fer (IRE) at 7/4F · then James Choice (GB), Prince Of Calypso (IRE)
What we said: 14-runner competitive Class 5 handicap with 4-5 legitimate contenders (Roc De Fer, James Choice, Fans Favourite, Alkumatic Jo Jo, Carwyn) and no runner clearly mispriced against my own read
Class 6 · 1m0f13y · Standard · 14 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Hatamoto (7/1)
Won by: Filly Eilish (IRE) at 16/1 · then Venetian Lion (GB), Kiani King (IRE)
What we said: Won his last two starts and is quickly backed up (11 days), with RP rating him well clear of his modest 60 mark, yet he's priced like a mid-pack runner.
Class 2 · 0m7f15y · Standard · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Rising Tiger (4/6)
Won by: Roosike (IRE) at 13/2 · then Rising Tiger (IRE), Bullrider (IRE)
What we said: Rising Tiger is a clear market leader at short odds (fair 53%) with legitimate claims, but favourites only win 4/26 in my recent record and no other runner's price looks wrong against its true chance in this 12-runner novice field
Class 4 · 0m7f14y · Standard · 12 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Storm Free (5/2)
Won by: Storm Free (GB) at 7/2F · then Chalk Mountain (GB), Spaceman (IRE)
What we said: Clear top-rated on figures (94 vs 87 next), proven at today's trip/going, and course/trainer combo strong (27%, a/e 1.09) despite the layoff.
Class 4 · 7f14y · Standard · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Comic Hero (7/2)
Won by: King Of Fury (IRE) at 12/1 · then Korbut (GB), Shaman Champion (IRE)
What we said: crowded competitive handicap (Cogitate, Comic Hero, Star Of Mali, Shaman Champion, Padua all have live claims) with no runner's price clearly detached from its true chance
Class 5 · 6f16y · Standard · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Modern Times (11/4)
Won by: Modern Times (GB) at 2/1F · then Pickersgill (IRE), Belsito (GER)
What we said: 14-runner competitive handicap with several closely-rated contenders (Modern Times, Irish Nectar, Hierarchy, Secret Guest) and no clear draw or pace angle to isolate a winner
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
