17:04 Handicap Stakes (Div I)
Did not winClass 6 · 1m14y · Standard · 10 ran
Our bet: Distillation (11/8)
Won by: Hear The Drums (GB) · then Miss Mambo (IRE), Soda (IRE)
What we said: He's flying right now, having won his last start and rounded off a progressive sequence (0-9241), and the drop into this weak Class 6 field on quick ground plays right to his Charm Spirit pedigree, which is documented to thrive on fast surfaces. He's clearly the standout on ability in a race with no other proven course-and-going form to match him.
17:34 Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Did not winClass 6 · 1m14y · Standard · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Gloriola (10/3)
Won by: Starakova (GB) at 100/30 · then Here Comes Louie (GB), Thomas Tallis (GB)
What we said: This is a genuinely bunched Class 6 handicap where Elashgar's placed-heavy campaign, Here Comes Louie's improving figures, Starakova's recent win-and-place mix and Gloriola's rising finishing positions all carry legitimate claims, and none of them separates cleanly from the others on today's figures or price. With four runners clustered together on ability and no standout trainer or fitness edge to lean on, backing any one of them is really just picking a number in a raffle.
18:06 Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 5 · 1m14y · Standard · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Filly Eilish (7/2)
Won by: Hauteluce (FR) at 100/30 · then Blue Celestial (GB), Kiss Me My Love (IRE)
What we said: Too many fillies arrive with a genuine leg to stand on: Filly Eilish won last time and carries a sire-line edge for this going, Kiss Me My Love also scored last start and holds a solid recent sequence, Zarinca owns the highest rating on official figures, and Dream Illusion's trainer/jockey numbers are respectable too — nothing separates that quartet cleanly at the prices on offer. In an 11-runner handicap with four legitimate claims and no draw bias to lean on, this is a pass rather than a guess dressed up as a pick.
18:41 Free Race Replays On attheraces.com EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Did not winClass 4 · 1m14y · Standard · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Bullrider (7/4)
Won by: Kodiac City (IRE) at 15/2 · then Baarberini (GB), Astral Crown (IRE)
What we said: Second and third in two starts to date shows a colt still building on solid placed form, and George Boughey has this string firing at a 25% strike rate over the last fortnight with the booked rider clicking well for the yard too. The step up to a mile plus a few yards on quick ground looks a sensible fit for a horse whose form figures are trending the right way.
19:16 Handicap Stakes (Div I)
PlacedClass 5 · 6f17y · Standard · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Ziggy's Condor (3/1)
Won by: Miraculous (IRE) at 5/1 · then Ziggy's Condor (IRE), Hectic (GB)
What we said: Ziggy's Condor sits on top of the ratings and backs up quickly with a first-time visor, but a client with a blank recent trainer stat and a race littered with support acts (Pickersgill fresh off a runner-up effort albeit drifting, Court Drive resuming with a win and a place before the blinkers go on, Moostar with tongue-tie and course form) means no single number stands out from the pack at the price on offer. Miraculous's rating looks the best on paper but the recent line (5-9-3-5-7-8) is trending the wrong way, and with four or five runners all carrying a live case this is one to watch rather than back.
19:51 Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Did not winClass 5 · 6f17y · Standard · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Spirit Of Jenny (10/3)
Won by: Dorney Lake (GB) at 9/2F · then Fierce (IRE), Beattie Is Back (GB)
What we said: Spirit Of Jenny sets the standard on form with two seconds and a win in her last three starts, but she's fully accounted for in the market and the 73-day break plus a stone-cold yard leave no real angle to push her higher; behind her, Baba Reza, Fierce and Jesse Luc all have plausible but equally thin cases, and nothing separates them cleanly enough to back with conviction.
20:26 Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Did not winClass 2 · 1m3f24y · Standard · 13 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Ultrasoul (4/1)
Won by: Spinning Wheel (GB) at 7/2 · then Say What You See (IRE), El Burhan (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out and has been running to a rising level all season (2-3-1-1-1), with a trainer in red-hot form (41% at the meeting) and a sire line that thrives on quicker ground exactly like today's firm-leaning Standard. He's shouldering a fair weight for his class rise and the profile points to more improvement rather than a plateau.
21:00 Handicap Stakes
PlacedClass 6 · 1m3f24y · Standard · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Golspie (3/1)
Won by: Junkyard Dog (IRE) at 9/1 · then Dingwall (GB), Golspie (IRE)
What we said: Thirteen runners in a bottom-rung handicap with half the field showing scrappy, inconclusive form (Golspie's 234436, Into Combat's 80-084, Luan's 60-911, Meet Me In Meraki's 678732) and nothing separates them cleanly at the prices; the market itself is unsettled, with Golspie steaming to 4/1 while Cavalry Call and Titainium drift out sharply, which reads more like confusion than conviction. Luan's pedigree wants softer ground than today's firm surface offers, and Into Combat's going-fit case is offset by moderate recent form, so no single horse clears the bar for my own money.