What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 4
Class 4 · 2m70y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Lucky Sevens (5/4)
Won by: Lucky Sevens (GB) at 11/10
What we said: small maiden field but two unraced runners (Hello Garda, Just Call Me Mo) make it genuinely hard to read, and both rated form horses are priced roughly at their fair odds with no real overlay
Class 5 · 2m6f7y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Bits Ballou (4/1)
Won by: French Diablo (FR) at 2/1 · then Babychino (IRE)
What we said: explicit bookie overlay (+1.5 vs exchange) plus improving form (4th-2nd last two starts) makes this a mispriced runner in a small, winnable field
Class 5 · 2m6f125y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Rockvale (5/1)
Won by: Artiste D'ainay (FR) at 10/3 · then Miss Pearl (IRE), Frankie Faulkner (IRE)
What we said: modest but consistent form (86-2P4) with a genuine bookie-vs-exchange overlay (+1.7) and solid course/jockey stats amid a muddled, weight-heavy field
Class 4 · 2m70y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Genealogy (2/1)
Won by: Genealogy (GB) at 1/2F · then Penzance (GB)
What we said: competitive 7-runner maiden hurdle; strongest form horse (Genealogy) is priced near its fair%, and the flagged bookie overlays are all on deeply out-of-form longshots (200/1, 150/1, 80/1) — no genuine mispricing to exploit
Class 5 · 2m3f98y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Thickthorn Tom (3/1)
Won by: Thickthorn Tom (IRE) at 9/4 · then Person Of Interest (IRE)
What we said: first-time tongue strap + blinkers add to solid form (2nd last time, winner two back) with strong trainer/jockey course stats, while nearly every rival is drifting in the market.
Class 4 · 2m2f148y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Edelak (1/2)
Won by: Getmetothemoon (GB) at 15/2 · then Donnie Azoff (IRE)
What we said: Edelak is clearly best on recent form and market strongly agrees (1/2, fair 62%), leaving no price value; the rest of the field carries either big weight (War Correspondent 169lb) or fitness question marks (Getmetothemoon 178d off)
Class 5 · 2m2f148y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Basilette (9/2)
Won by: Basilette (IRE) at 7/2 · then Yanka Blue (IRE), Sadies Diamond (IRE)
What we said: back-to-back wins in her last five, fully proven over today's C&D, and carries a genuine bookie overlay (+0.5) versus the exchange price
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
