What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 4
Class 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 3 ran
Our bet: Clementines Star (4/6)
Won by: Clementines Star (GB) at 8/15F
What we said: clear form edge (33-32) over a fading rival (5420) and an unproven returning filly, in a tiny 3-runner maiden with no credible threat
Class 5 · 7f · 3 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Clementines Star (8/11)
Won by: Clementines Star (GB) at 8/15F
What we said: 3-runner field with the market essentially spot-on (fav 8/11 vs fair 55%, others also within a point of fair) — no price disagreement to exploit
Class 5 · 7f218y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hatamoto (11/10)
Won by: Hatamoto (GB) at 4/5F
What we said: 4-runner handicap where every price already matches its fair%, no genuine overlay anywhere, and Thirsk has been a weak track for me
Class 5 · 7f218y · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hatamoto (6/4)
Won by: Hatamoto (GB) at 4/5F
What we said: Two well-matched market leaders (Hatamoto 6/4, Sandy Craic 7/4) both priced close to fair%, no bookie-overlay flag on either to signal mispricing, genuinely competitive 5-horse handicap
Class 5 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Yellow Diamonds (9/2)
Won by: Angel Numbers (IRE) at 7/1 · then Straight Ahead (GB), Under The Radar (IRE)
What we said: best draw (9) for today's strong high-draw bias, plus a market steamer (27% shorter) and sire suited to fast ground, converging on the strongest all-round case in a messy field
Class 6 · 7f218y · Good To Firm · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Trucial Pearl (5/2)
Won by: Park Lane Penny (IRE) at 11/2 · then Here Comes Louie (GB), Bridgefoot Rambler (GB)
What we said: 13-runner Class 6 with no standout price edge; top form horse (Trucial Pearl) drawn widest (13) against a low-draw bias, cancelling her form advantage
Class 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Coconut Bay (11/4)
Won by: Captain Cess (IRE) at 3/1 · then Coconut Bay (GB), Elashgar (IRE)
What we said: Class 6 handicap with 4+ closely matched contenders (Captain Cess, Emerald Army, Coconut Bay, Night Emperor all within a few lbs) and no runner's price meaningfully disagrees with fair%
Class 5 · 0m7f218y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Military Leader (5/2)
Won by: Capital Guarantee (IRE) at 15/2 · then Military Leader (GB)
What we said: tightly bunched Class 5 handicap with 4 legit contenders (CG, Degale, Harswell Ruby, Barley) and no price clearly overlaid vs fair%
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
