What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2 · results held for 3
Class 3 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Diamond New Bay (8/13)
What we said: heavy favourite Diamond New Bay (59% fair) is short with no form shown to confirm, and the rest are longshots with no standout angle
Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Blessed Voyager (4/6)
What we said: clear market leader on a winning debut form-line, well-drawn favourite in a weak Class 4 novice field with no rivals of similar profile
Class 6 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Lady Dublin (3/1)
What we said: 12-runner 2yo nursery, Lady Dublin is clear best on figures but her 3/1 price already sits inside her fair odds (21% fair vs ~25% implied), no value case for her or any rival
Class 5 · 1m6f0y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Gaelic Approach (6/4)
What we said: five-way form-tight handicap where Gibside, Gaelic Approach, Tupero and Twilight Safari all have legitimate claims and none look mispriced against my read
Class 5 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Zooella (5/2)
Won by: Zooella (IRE) at 5/2 · then Canaria Queen (GB), Love Alive (GB)
What we said: competitive 9-runner handicap with 4+ live claims (Zooella, Taygar, Celtic Arrow, Eartha) and no runner's price clearly exceeds my own read of its chance
Class 6 · 1m4f8y · Good · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Wolf of Badenoch (4/1)
Won by: Sixty Plus (IRE) at 3/1 · then Dubai Venture (IRE)
What we said: Tops the figures by 6lbs, won last time out, proven at trip/going, and 4/1 looks value against a fair 19% given the form edge
Class 6 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Sunlit Sea (10/3)
Won by: Sunlit Sea (GB) at 9/4F · then So Grateful (GB), Irish Dancer (IRE)
What we said: 9-runner apprentice handicap with four horses (Sunlit Sea, Mare Of London, Midnight Lir, Albegone) rated within 3lb of each other, no standout price/case
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
