What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 3 · results held for 4
Class 6 · 0m6f0y · Good · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Tarlac (5/2)
What we said: Form figures read 8-7-7-4-2, a clean upward trend that culminates in a good second last time out, and the dam's line here is flagged to relish today's good/firm ground. Add a claiming jockey booked by an in-form yard (17% last fortnight) and this is the horse shaping like it's crying out to go one better.
Class 4 · 0m5f0y · Good · 13 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: My Maria (5/2)
What we said: Consistently placed in deeper maiden company (4-3-2-2) and steps up to first-time cheekpieces from a yard that adapts kit well, with Archie Watson notably strong at this course (21% strike, a/e 1.22). The market has already nudged her in from 5/2 to 3.5, but the profile of solid, progressive form against a scattered, largely unproven field still makes her the one to beat.
Class 5 · 0m7f0y · Good · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Bymiddaytomorrow (13/8)
Won by: Bymiddaytomorrow (IRE) at 11/8F · then Love Tanya (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out and the form line reads 6581, a clear upward trajectory into this nursery drop in company; the yard is in cracking form with the trainer firing at 28% over the last fortnight and this stable has a strong record at Thirsk itself (23% at the course, a/e 1.06). The 3lb claim helps offset the top-weight assignment, and there's little in this small field with the same recent scoring form to challenge that profile.
Class 5 · 0m5f0y · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Military Girl (9/4)
Won by: Azuinthejungle (GB) · then Vince L'Amour (IRE)
What we said: Three fillies/geldings arrive with claims that cancel each other out: Military Girl's 1-1-2 finishing sequence and highest rating just about lead the way, but J Street won last time out from a similar mark and Azuinthejungle is unbeaten in two starts with a claimer taking off weight, so nothing separates them cleanly at the prices on offer. Vince L'Amour's steam and first-time headgear are noted but backed by a form line (006790) too poor to trust, and Thirsk has been a weak track for these calls historically.
Class 3 · 1m4f8y · Good · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Master Vintner (2/1)
Won by: Master Vintner (IRE) at 3/1 · then Golden West (GB)
What we said: Second in his last two starts and third before that, he's building nicely into this mark and the drop into a smaller, more workable field suits his attacking style. First-time blinkers are worth noting given Ralph Beckett's sharp course record (20% strike, a/e 0.88) with this stable, and his course-and-distance form reads well across five runs. He looks the one with the clearest upward trend of anyone in this six-runner line-up.
Class 6 · 0m6f0y · Good · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Great Profit (3/1)
Won by: Great Profit (IRE) at 7/2F · then Yellow Diamonds (IRE), Lope Y Linda (GB)
What we said: Great Profit has been steaming and is clearly in-form with three straight seconds, but the market has already caught up to that story and his trainer carries no recent strike rate to lean on; Maximum Velocity, Real Jack and Soul Warrior all have live claims of their own with fair chances in the 9-16% range, and nothing separates this cluster enough to back one with conviction in an 11-runner Class 6 scrap.
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