What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 0 · results held for 2
Class 4 · 1m7f168y · Good
We passed. Likely winner: Trouville (5/4)
What we said: 13-runner novice hurdle with two well-fancied favourites (Trouville, Likewhatyousee) priced close to my own read of their chance, no value gap vs FAIR%
Class 5 · 1m7f168y · Good
We passed. Likely winner: Ashdown Forest (6/4)
What we said: 11-runner handicap hurdle with conflicting signals: market's strong fave (Ashdown Forest, 6/4) has modest recent form (nothing better than 6th last 4), while the form-standout (Chicago Storm, PR115) has unreliable jumping (pulled up/fell last 2) — no clean read
Class 5 · 1m7f168y · Good
We passed. Likely winner: Cawthorne Banker (10/3)
What we said: competitive 8-runner handicap hurdle with at least four legitimate form claims (Mayday Games, Cawthorne Banker, Genbu, Ocean Heights) and no price that clearly outstrips my honest read of its chance
Class 5 · 3m0f10y · Good
We passed. Likely winner: Kenzo Des Bruyeres (11/2)
What we said: 14-runner handicap chase, wide-open form with 5+ horses (Normofthenorth, Jullou De Grissay, Kenzo, Slaney Opera, Betty's Tiara) having legitimate claims and RP's own top-rated pick (Collingham) at 50/1 despite pulled-up efforts is unbacked by market
Class 4 · 2m7f70y · Good
We passed. Likely winner: Colegram (9/2)
What we said: 16-runner competitive handicap hurdle with 5+ horses (Billy Boi Blue, Torrent, Prince De Juilley, Dr Seb, Colegram, Rock Hurley) carrying legitimate claims and no single price compensating enough for the uncertainty
Class 4 · 2m3f207y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dream's Ka (7/2)
Won by: Divilabother (IRE) at 15/2 · then Golden Maverick (FR), Dream Diamond (IRE)
What we said: six horses (Dream Diamond, Golden Maverick, Maghlaak, Magical Hill, Divilabother, Dream's Ka) have genuine form claims in this competitive 11-runner handicap hurdle, with no runner priced clearly against my read
Class 4 · 1m7f214y · Good
Our bet: Ice Jet (6/4)
What we said: Outstanding recent form (2-1112) with three wins in five starts and an in-form Skelton yard (29% last fortnight), clearly the strongest formline in a tightly-rated field
Class 4 · 1m7f168y · Good · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Thetype Istitle (3/1)
Won by: Sparkling Water (GB) at 11/4F · then Ebarayna (GB), Lucy Glitters (GB)
What we said: mares' NHF with several unraced/lightly-raced fillies and 4+ runners with plausible claims (Thetype Istitle, Sparkling Water, Lucy Glitters, Petite Poet), no runner clearly overpriced against fair%
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