16:45 Think Print & Design Maiden Hurdle
Did not win2m180y · Good · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Tomthescaffolder (11/4)
Won by: Rosenborg (FR) at 9/1 · then Sea Eagle (GB), Penny Express (IRE)
What we said: This maiden hurdle is far too messy to play with confidence: Tomthescaffolder heads the market on solid recent form (46-43) for a red-hot De Bromhead yard, but Penny Express arrives fresh from Gordon Elliott's with Jack Kennedy up and a career-best profile, Rosenborg has been progressive for Rothwell, and Run For Power carries useful placed form from her only two starts over hurdles despite the long absence. With four runners boasting genuine claims and little real separation between them at the prices on offer, there's no single horse here worth staking on.
17:16 Treo Eile Mares Handicap Hurdle
Did not win2m180y · Good · 17 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Chosen Shant (2/1)
Won by: Tropical Twist (IRE) at 17/2 · then Game Phoenix (IRE), Teagarden Jazz (GB)
What we said: Top-rated in the field on official figures by some margin, with a strong course record (4110412 including recent placings and wins) and back-to-back solid efforts in the current form figure 743712, including a recent win. She carries top weight but the rating gap over the rest of this 17-runner field looks wide enough to cover the concession, and she's fit having run just 16 days ago.
17:51 Neville Hotels Handicap Hurdle
Did not win2m180y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Shaboozee (6/4)
Won by: Splashing Out (IRE) at 6/1 · then Jabbar (IRE), Ma Belle Etoile (IRE)
What we said: Shaboozee looks the class act on his 92114 form and course/going record, but a 316-day absence is a genuine fitness unknown and he's already odds-on at 6/4, leaving no margin for that risk; behind him Mode Avion and Jabbar are both drifting and carry their own return/weight questions, while the steam into Tassarolo and Wonderfulwonderful is too thin a form foundation to trust with first-time gear or a recent blank. Nothing in this field pairs a solid case with a price that pays for the uncertainty attached to it.
18:26 SIS Handicap Hurdle
Did not win3m · Good · 17 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Gerrys Wish (4/1)
Won by: Strong Contender (IRE) at 11/1 · then Tango Theatre (IRE), Clone Cross (GB)
What we said: Seventeen runners on a firm-riding decent surface is exactly the kind of handicap where prices do the thinking for you, and nothing here stands clear of the pack: Gerrys Wish carries the strongest recent form and the Kennedy-Elliott combination, but her figures are a string of runner-up finishes (22-8P2) rather than proven closing speed, and at least four others — Clone Cross, Charlie's Dilemma, Set The Tone, Strong Contender — arrive with claims that are hard to separate at the prices on offer. Add in the weight-carrying top-weights and the market still shuffling overnight, and this is a card built for spreading risk, not staking it on one number.
19:01 Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div I)
Did not win2m4f55y · Good · 17 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Deise Crystal (11/4)
Won by: Who's Da Goose (GB) at 25/1 · then Sekakarma (IRE), Bayonetta (IRE)
What we said: Seventeen runners in a competitive handicap hurdle is exactly the shape of race that chews up an honest edge, and nothing here stands alone: Deise Crystal is the one shortest in the market but carries cold trainer form and only two starts at the course, while Bayonetta, Barrogstown Girl and Sekakarma all arrive with plausible recent form and nothing that clearly separates them at their prices. Add in fitness question marks over Zaryagle and Madam Elle, a first-time cheekpieces gamble on Notmiwadi that's drifting rather than steaming, and a top-weight in Jonny Carrol whose market move says the opposite of confidence — this is a field where four or five horses have a case and none has a standout one.
19:36 Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
Did not win2m4f55y · Good · 17 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Poppycon (10/3)
Won by: Esticky End (IRE) at 6/1 · then Las Brisas Boy (IRE), Chosen Princess (IRE)
What we said: Seventeen runners in a handicap hurdle is exactly the kind of race that eats confident reads alive, and nothing here rises above the pack: Poppycon sits favourite off modest scoring form and a big weight to carry off a 7lb claimer, General Clermont's the classiest number on paper but backed up quickly with 12 stone to lump round on quick reappearance, and Las Brisas Boy is drifting away from market support after his own respectable recent runs. With this many live chances at similar prices and no single horse offering a fitness, trip or class edge worth trusting, it's a race to watch rather than play.
20:11 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race
We named the winner2m0f160y · Good · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Get It Girl (7/4)
Won by: Get It Girl (IRE) at 4/1 · then Bredas Pearl (GB), Baymount (IRE)
What we said: This mares' bumper offers little to grip: Get It Girl heads the market off a single start and a 295-day absence with fitness unknown, while Shuil Solas has been backed in hard on the strength of one run where she finished only fifth on this ground, and the rest of the field is a mix of blank form lines and first-time headgear experiments like Royal Tiara. With this much unraced or unreadable form scattered through a 12-runner field, there's no horse I can build a genuine case around at the price on offer.
