What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 3
Class 4 · 5f21y · Good To Firm · 3 ran
Our bet: Undercover Affair (7/4)
Won by: Undercover Affair (IRE) at 85/40
What we said: steamer with low draw, superior recent form (221423) and proven C&D/going, market money backing him as Jaijai drifts hard
Class 4 · 1m31y · Good To Firm · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Levens Hall (8/11)
Won by: Levens Hall (GB) at 5/4F · then Asset (GER), Colonnade (IRE)
What we said: Levens Hall is priced far shorter than typical market margin implies (odds-on favourite with no value edge), and steamer Leonardo Blu's price move is within normal juice, leaving no genuine mispricing to exploit
Class 4 · 6f12y · Good To Firm · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Magi Melchior (5/2)
Won by: Ferrystream (IRE) at 11/2 · then Mithaaly (GB), Secret Society (IRE)
What we said: 12-runner novice sprint with 3+ legitimate contenders (Sovereigns High, Magi Melchior, Mithaaly) and no runner priced above its fair% for genuine value
Class 4 · 6f12y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Real Bullet (6/1)
Won by: Real Bullet (GB) at 8/1 · then Note To Self (GB), Market Leader (IRE)
What we said: 2yo novice with 4+ legitimate contenders (Market Leader fav at fair price, Note To Self, Real Bullet, He's Readytorumble), no single runner's price compensates for the uncertainty
Class 4 · 6f12y · Good To Firm · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Sir Alfie (40/1)
Won by: Under The Twilight (GB) at 6/1 · then Amazonian Dream (IRE), Papa Cocktail (IRE)
What we said: wide-open 12-runner sprint handicap, RP itself calls it "wide open," multiple runners (Bintola, An Outlaw's Grace, Papa Cocktail, Under The Twilight, Amazonian Dream) share plausible claims with no standout price edge
Class 4 · 1m31y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Knowledge (20/1)
Won by: Bold Impact (IRE) at 3/1 · then Cristo (GB), Kalokalo (IRE)
What we said: first-time cheekpieces plus a rare double signal (🔥 steamer + 💰 4pt bookie overlay) suggest the yard fancies a big form turnaround on his favoured ground.
Class 4 · 1m2f · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Silent City (11/8)
Won by: A Major Payne (GB) at 5/2 · then Morcar (GB)
What we said: tightly bunched Class 4 handicap, no runner shows a genuine price edge vs fair odds (favourite Silent City actually overbet vs fair)
Class 5 · 1m2f · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Shadow Brigade (9/2)
Won by: Impossible Mission (GB) at 7/2 · then Lady Milton (GB)
What we said: Steamer (27% shorter) plus bookie overlay converge with a favourable draw and proven fast-ground pedigree, market money backing a horse whose "third three starts back" form isn't dead yet
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
