What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 5 · 0m5f21y · Good To Firm · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: London Is Blue (5/2)
Won by: Too Darn Good (IRE) at 11/1 · then Moe's Legacy (GB), Merrimack (GB)
What we said: 12-runner apprentice handicap with 4+ horses (London Is Blue, Kiss And Run, Moe's Legacy, Alkuwarrior, Hint Of Humour) clustered on plausible form, none clearly overpriced against fair%
Class 4 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Ziata (7/2)
Won by: Ziata (GB) at 9/2 · then Lucy The Wire (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 4 · 0m6f12y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Harry Knows (8/11)
Won by: Harry Knows (IRE) at 4/7F · then Down To You Kid (IRE)
What we said: Harry Knows looks the likely winner but its price already sits close to my own read of its chance (fair 54%, my estimate ~48-50%), and the rest of the field (Down To You Kid, Boysofwallstreet) offer no clear overlay either
Class 5 · 0m6f12y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Forever Glamorous (11/8)
Won by: Madman (GB) at 11/2 · then Solar Invincible (IRE)
What we said: Rapid recent improvement (6-2-3-5-1) capped by a last-time-out win, sire suits fast ground, and hot in-form trainer at the course
Class 3 · 0m6f12y · Good To Firm · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Amazonian Dream (7/2)
Won by: Another Abbot (IRE) at 4/1 · then Sudden Flight (GB), Regional Rock (GB)
What we said: 13-runner handicap sprint with 6+ credible contenders (Sudden Flight, Hucklesbrook, Another Abbot, Amazonian Dream, Regional Rock) all bunched on rating/form, and no price clearly beats its fair%
Class 5 · 1m0f31y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Khuskhas (7/2)
Won by: Berlinetta (GB) at 11/2 · then Eazy On The Eye (GB), Box Clever (GB)
What we said: Nine-runner handicap with five genuine contenders (Eazy On The Eye, Box Clever, Khuskhas, Toralou, Berlinetta) all bunched on form/figures, no single price clearly out of line with its true chance
Class 6 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Takeitorleaveit (11/2)
Won by: Give Me Sun (GB) at 6/1 · then Takeitorleaveit (IRE)
What we said: Top-rated on figures with a remarkably consistent 172221 sequence and a quick 6-day turnaround, priced far bigger than his true chance looks given My Old Mate is odds-on in a genuinely competitive 8-runner field
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
