Windsor — 17 August 2026

Class 5 · 0m5f21y · Good To Firm · 9 ran

Our bet: South Shore (7/2)

Won by: Thornaby Pearl (GB) · then South Shore (GB), Sunlit Sea (GB)

What we said: Two wins and a close second in his last three starts, all at today's exact course, distance and going, with a perfect record from two prior runs at Windsor itself, points to a horse still on the up and fully suited by today's conditions. The pattern of improvement (5-3-1-1-2) is the clearest form line in the race, and there's nothing in the recent placings to suggest he's stopped improving.

Class 4 · 0m6f12y · Good To Firm · 11 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Mithaaly (8/13)

Won by: Mithaaly (GB) at 4/9F · then Arthur Carrot (GB), Hemustbeanangel (IRE)

What we said: Mithaaly's form and market position make him look the likely winner, but at 8/13 there's no bet left in him for me, and nothing behind him (Fairy Well, Astralite, the big-priced drifters) clears the bar on its own case

Class 4 · 0m5f21y · Good To Firm · 6 ran

Our bet: Black Velvet Boy (7/2)

Won by: Black Velvet Boy (IRE) at 6/1 · then Magic Effort (GB)

What we said: Won last time out (1/13) over this exact trip and going just 20 days ago, and the form line shows a clear upward trajectory (7-3-1), with the dam's side flagged as suited to good-to-firm. The draw is neutral here so his stall 2 is no concern, and at this small field size the conditions match is the cleanest form angle on offer.

Class 4 · 0m6f12y · Good To Firm · 9 ran

Our bet: Ray Mon Dough (5/2)

Won by: Under The Twilight (GB) at 7/2 · then Tenbob Tommy (GB), Lequinto (IRE)

What we said: Won last time out over this exact trip and going just 8 days ago, and today's conditions repeat that winning test to the letter. He's the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and carries the fastest habitual early pace figure among the front-pace group, letting him dictate from the front rather than get buried in a workmanlike sprint handicap. The Class 4 grade and weight are things he's already proven he can carry off recent form, and the case here is simply that he arrives fit, in form, and suited by the repeat conditions.

Class 6 · 0m6f12y · Good To Firm · 12 ran

Our bet: Yes Waliim (11/4)

Won by: Nzuri (GB) at 40/1 · then Yes Waliim (IRE), Geemann (GB)

What we said: Strung together the best profile in the race with the highest PR/SR figures here (PR 59, SR 65%) and comes into this off a facile last-time-out win, and today's move back down in trip to 6f plus the switch onto quicker good-to-firm ground should suit a horse who's already shown blistering recent form. The 7lb claim take further sharpens the weight picture, and with only 6 days since that win he looks fit and ready to follow up rather than needing the run.

Class 6 · 1m3f99y · Good To Firm · 9 ran

Our bet: Risk Averse Rebel (5/2)

Won by: Pershalla (GB) at 4/1 · then Mister Pretentious (GB), Highland Harvey (IRE)

What we said: Third-in-a-row placed horse that's been creeping forward each start (345332) with today's step back to 11.5f suiting a colt who was only touched off last time at 12.5f, and the damsire Exceed And Excel line is flagged to excel on this quick going. Consistent, lightly-raced and race-fit off a sensible 23-day break, this looks the strongest form profile in a moderate Class 6 field.