16:35 Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 6 · 5f21y · Standard · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: My Mate Mackley (5/2)
Won by: A Lott Of Kane (IRE) at 11/4 · then Runamara (IRE), Havin A Flyer (GB)
What we said: He's been knocking on the door with three straight places (3rd, 2nd, 2nd) since his win four starts back, and he arrives on a quick 7-day turnaround having already shown he handles this trip and track; unlike several rivals here he isn't drifting in the market, suggesting confidence is holding rather than draining away. I make him roughly a 30% chance at 5/2 against a fair price implying 26%, which is enough of a gap given how solid and current his form reads.
17:10 Handicap Stakes
We named the winnerClass 6 · 1m142y · Standard · 13 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Between Me And U (7/2)
Won by: Between Me And U (GB) at 5/1 · then Volto Di Medusa (IRE), R P Mcmurphy (GB)
What we said: Comes here off a recent win and steps back into a race over today's trip and going where he's already shown he handles the conditions, and the drop in class/weight from stall two lets him build on that. His damsire Pivotal line is flagged as thriving on this surface, which backs up the improvement shown last time rather than standing alone as the case, and at 7/2 I make him roughly a 22-25% chance in a field where no other runner stacks up as cleanly.
17:47 Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
PlacedClass 4 · 1m1f104y · Standard · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Chimes Of Thunder (9/4)
Won by: Bintward (GB) at 2/1 · then Pyramid (GB), Chimes Of Thunder (GER)
What we said: Already has solid form figures (3-5-2 sequence) showing she's raced competitively and is progressing, unlike the unraced favourites she's priced alongside, and today's good going suits her Night Of Thunder/Kingman pedigree perfectly. Haggas is in form at this course and having already raced twice recently keeps her sharp against two debutants taking similar odds — I make her nearer a 33% winning chance than the market's price suggests.
18:22 EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
PlacedClass 5 · 6f20y · Standard · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Supreme Star (11/10)
Won by: Angel Sense (GB) at 9/2 · then Supreme Star (IRE), Location Location (GB)
What we said: 12-runner 2yo maiden with five drifters and only one steamer, first-time headgear on two runners, and no single price that clearly undershoots the horse's real chance once the favourite is accounted for
18:57 Claiming Stakes
Did not winClass 6 · 6f20y · Standard · 11 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Punchbowl Flyer (18/1)
Won by: Mission Command (IRE) at 9/1 · then Manly Fireball (IRE), Hunky Dory (GB)
What we said: Back-to-back wins in his last two starts show a horse finally clicking into form at this level, and with a 7lb claim aboard and a manageable draw, the tactical picture suits a proven stayer over today's trip; I make him roughly an 8% chance at a price implying barely half that, so there's real scope for this in-form outsider to go one better in a modest claiming field. His rating lags his recent scoreline, and class 6 claimers are exactly the sort of race where a horse finding form matters more than a stale figure on paper.
19:32 Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 6 · 1m4f51y · Standard · 12 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Crown Inn To Win (6/1)
Won by: Blue Tulip (IRE) at 16/1 · then Evening Fades (GB), Si White (GER)
What we said: Placed in five of his last six starts, including a win two runs back and a third last time out, he's building a genuinely progressive profile into this trip he already knows well; Furtado's yard is firing at 21% over the last fortnight, which lines up nicely with a horse they've clearly planned this run around. The 82-day absence is the obvious question mark, but the placed-heavy sequence and course experience make him look better than his 6/1 suggests.
20:07 Handicap Stakes (Div I)
Did not winClass 6 · 7f36y · Standard · 12 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Emery Down (9/4)
Won by: Iconic Times (GB) at 2/1F · then Velvet Skies (IRE), African Spirit (IRE)
What we said: Consistent form figures (785442) show she's racing well and knocking on the door, and the drop into this modest class 6 with a stack of second/fourth placed efforts suggests she's ready to convert; the market has clearly latched onto this with heavy steam into 9/4, and I make her a fair 30% chance in a race with no standout rival.
20:42 Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Did not winClass 6 · 7f36y · Standard · 12 ran
Our bet: Musical Soldier (10/3)
Won by: Manton Road (GB) at 14/1 · then On Key (GB), Midnight's Dream (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out and has been in the frame in three of his last five, arriving in customer-ready form for a yard firing at 26% over the last fortnight; I make him roughly a 26-28% chance here, above what the market is offering at 10/3. The step up in confidence from a red-hot stable, plus solid course figures for this trainer/jockey combination, gives this progressive sort a genuine chance of following up rather than merely making up the numbers.