Wolverhampton — 31 July 2026

Class 4 · 0m7f36y · Standard · 10 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Rajiba (6/4)

Won by: Star Of Commala (IRE) at 125/1 · then Gilding The Lily (GB), Foxy Night (IRE)

What we said: Rajiba is a strong-looking favourite steaming into 2.5 with solid form figures and a rising trainer, but at that price she leaves no room for error and Foxy Night's first-time cheekpieces plus consistent 4332 form make this a genuine two-horse race that isn't worth backing at either end. Too many others (Gilding The Lily, Navona Grey) also have plausible placed claims to trust the picture, and the front two have already absorbed the market's real information.

Class 5 · 0m7f36y · Standard · 10 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Gunfighter (10/3)

Won by: Espanita (IRE) at 20/1 · then Merry (GB), Angels' Share (GB)

What we said: Al Muqdad, Gunfighter and Angels' Share all have genuine claims at similar prices, and none stands out enough to call: Al Muqdad is proven at this level but concedes big weight off top mark, Angels' Share's recent form has faded (0-8985), and Gunfighter's last-time win is the freshest form but he's stepping up on a single good run. Throw in three first-time headgear changes (Generous Rascal, Quick Quasar, Espanita) that could mean anything, and this Class 5 handicap is too muddled to isolate a price that's wrong.

Class 4 · 0m7f36y · Standard · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Ghisa (11/4)

Won by: Carnival Of Light (GB) at 11/4F · then Inside Story (IRE), Ghisa (IRE)

What we said: this is a genuinely mixed Class 4 fillies' handicap: the market leader Ghisa has been trending the right way (3rd last time after a break) but her ratings are only middling for the field, while proven-quicker types like Tarot and Inside Story are both coming off flat recent efforts, and hot-form horses like Paris Babe and Orchid are either out of form or carrying a big weight burden — nothing stacks up as a confident stand-out.

Class 5 · 1m0f142y · Standard · 9 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Suggy (7/4)

Won by: Suggy (GB) at 6/4F · then Lightning Glory (IRE), Always Blue (GB)

What we said: Won last time out and the form line reads 22-181, a colt clearly progressing with a break-through win fresh in the memory, and he holds the best rating in the field by a solid margin. Charles Hills' yard is in good order and Muscutt has ridden him to that recent success, so the pattern of improvement looks likely to continue at this trip.

Class 5 · 1m4f51y · Standard · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Roc De Fer (8/13)

Won by: Roc De Fer (IRE) at 1/4F · then Much (GB)

What we said: Roc De Fer is a clear class apart on form and looks the likely winner but is steaming into odds-on with no rival to construct a case against, while the rest of the field (Much fresh off a moderate maiden campaign, Fans Favourite returning quickly, Jodhpur Blue's first-time tongue strap) all carry question marks that don't translate into a priced overlay against a shortening favourite. This is a straightforward "best horse wins, price too short to back" race rather than one with a mispriced runner underneath.

Class 4 · 0m6f20y · Standard · 10 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Papa Cocktail (7/1)

Won by: American Style (GB) at 2/1F · then Moving Force (IRE), Angel Love (GB)

What we said: self-consistency reruns converged on a different horse than the original pick

Class 6 · 0m5f21y · Standard · 6 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Fancy Dancer (10/3)

Won by: Happier (IRE) at 7/4F · then Fancy Dancer (GB)

What we said: Dam-line clearly favours today's fast surface, and the yard is in red-hot form with a 50% strike rate over the last fortnight, both pointing to a318 leading claim not fully reflected in the 10/3 quote. Recent starts show she's been racing consistently in the frame among these sprint handicappers, and dropping into this weak six-runner field with those two angles working together gives her a live chance I'd put closer to 30% than the market's 22%.