What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 4 · 0m5f42y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Evenfall (10/11)
Won by: Evenfall (GB) at 4/6F
What we said: 4-runner novice with two legitimate contenders (Evenfall fav 49% fair, Anchiano course-winner 36% fair) both priced close to fair, no real market mispricing to exploit
Class 5 · 1m0f3y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Distinct Spirit (4/1)
Won by: Drifts Away (GB) at 7/1 · then Rogue Dynasty (GB)
What we said: 7-runner handicap with at least four plausible types (Distinct Spirit, Rogue Dynasty, Man Of Desert, Panelli) and no single price clearly exceeds my read of its true chance
Class 4 · 0m7f3y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hardy's Hero (6/5)
Won by: Three Non Blondes (GB) at 7/2
What we said: 4-runner handicap where every runner's price sits right on its fair odds, no genuine value gap anywhere
Class 5 · 0m7f3y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Rogue Allegiance (2/1)
Won by: Rogue Allegiance (IRE) · then North View (GB)
What we said: competitive 6-runner handicap where the market favourite (Rogue Allegiance) already trades close to its fair odds, leaving no genuine mispricing to exploit
Class 6 · 1m3f104y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Caraway (4/5)
Won by: Mr Bollinger (USA) at 4/1 · then Caraway (GB)
What we said: clear class edge in a weak 5-runner field, improving form (646132) with a strong Haggas/Marquand combo, despite the quick 1-day turnaround
Class 6 · 0m6f3y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Havana Jag (9/4)
Won by: Rianka (GB) at 8/1 · then Chasing Gold (GB)
What we said: 8-runner handicap with three legitimate form contenders (Havana Jag, Blindfold Games, Due Date) all close to their fair prices, no clear mispricing to exploit
Class 5 · 1m0f3y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Roi de Coeur (6/5)
Won by: Celtic Chariot (IRE) at 5/2
What we said: clear form and class leader (fresh win last time, in-form yard, good draw) in a small four-runner handicap, though price already reflects much of that
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
